NFC South: Where Everyone’s Bad, But Someone’s Gotta Be First

It’s not exactly NFC West-level chaos in the South. 

But with six weeks left in the regular season, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina have everything to sort out.

There are signs of life and unexpectedly heartening play suddenly behind the division-leading Falcons. 

While Atlanta enjoyed its bye week, the Bucs broke out of a four-game losing streak, and the once-lowly—maybe still lowly, but spunky—Panthers showed promise in a gritty loss to the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. 

Becoming kings of the South is not just about prestige. Once again this season, it’s highly likely that only the division winner will secure a playoff spot. 

Entering Week 13, the 6-5 Falcons are the fourth seed in the NFC, with a 71% chance of reaching the postseason, according to NFL.com projections.

The second-place Bucs (5-6) are currently ninth-seeded behind 6-5 Arizona and given a 52% chance of reaching the playoffs.

The odds get incredibly long for the division behind the top two. The Saints are 4-7 at 4% playoff chances and the 3-8 Panthers at less than 1 percent. Even so, all four of these teams will be a factor in which one is left standing in the end.

Here’s a team-by-team outlook for the rest of the season.

ATLANTA: The Falcons’ main asset is a 4-1 record in the division, having swept the Bucs, splitting with New Orleans and taking the first matchup on the road against Carolina. The remainder of Atlanta’s schedule is a mixed bag, with tough dates against the Chargers at home this week and at Minnesota in Week 14. 

But there’s also manageable games against the Raiders and Panthers and a fading Washington. Oddly, Atlanta is the only current division leader with a negative net points figure, at a staggering minus-30.

TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay is 1-2 in the South, its victory coming at New Orleans. The Bucs looked explosive and playoff-worthy, albeit against the Giants, in a 30-7 blowout win on Sunday and quarterback Baker Mayfield appears to have his team playing loose and confident. 

Their remaining schedule seems amenable to a playoff run: two dates with Carolina, hosting Las Vegas and at Dallas. All told, Tampa Bay has three huge division games left in its final six. Crucially, though, none with Atlanta.

NEW ORLEANS: The Saints, incredibly, are just two games off the pace after two straight wins, including a 20-17 triumph over Atlanta two weeks ago. The Saints have been an oddity at 2-3 in the division. 

They’ve split with the Falcons (good), but split with the Panthers (bad). The seven-game losing streak that defines their season included all three division defeats, and there’s tough home matchups ahead against the Rams and Packers. 

CAROLINA: The Panthers are incredibly interesting for a last-place team. Benched, then reinstated, quarterback Bryce Young is suddenly playing like a number one draft pick, orchestrating a comeback from an 11-point halftime deficit against Kansas City on Sunday and setting up... a heartbreaking last-second defeat. 

Carolina is 1-2 in the division, having split with the Saints and lost at home to Atlanta. And it represents a real variable in determining the outcome of the South.

Carolina had won two in a row—against the Saints and Giants—before Sunday’s 30-27 loss to the Chiefs. If the last three weeks have been more about a young team and quarterback growing up and less about playing one of the worst teams in the NFL (New York) and another with a flare for making life hard on itself (Kansas City), then the Panthers could go as far in deciding the NFC South as the two teams with a real chance to capture it.

It begins in Week 13 when Carolina hosts Tampa Bay. It continues on Dec. 29 with the Panthers at Tampa Bay. Carolina visits Atlanta in the final game of the regular season.