Down 31-24 early in the fourth quarter, Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight threw a touchdown pass that brought the Sooners one point within Kansas State. But kicker Micheal Hunnicutt's extra point was blocked. The Sooners later failed to take the lead when Hunnicutt missed a 19-yard field goal with about four minutes remaining. Hunnicutt's botched kicks made a huge difference in the one-point loss, and were two of the most detrimental plays of the week, according to data from fantasy sports app Pivit.
Pivit tracked in-game Win Probability for all college football games involving ranked teams this weekend. Their Win Probability is similar to Brian Burke's and accounts for time remaining, down, distance, and score. The main difference is Pivit places more emphasis on team strength, in this case adjusting for the drastic variation among college football teams.
Here's what a Pivit in-game graph looks like, using the example of the Oklahoma game above.
Hunnicutt's missed field goal lowered Oklahoma's Win Probability 54 percentage points from 71 percent to 17 percent. His blocked extra point lowered OU's Win Probability 16 percentage points from 60 percent to 44 percent.
While Hunnicutt had two of the worst plays of the week, Utah running back Devontae Booker accounted for two of the most positive plays of the week in Utah's double-overtime win over Oregon State.
His 15-yard touchdown run in overtime raised Utah's Win Probability 29 percentage points from 53 percent to 82 percent. And his 53-yard dash in the middle of the fourth quarter increased his team's Win Probability 27 percentage points from 22 percent to 49 percent. That play led to a Booker touchdown four plays later, which gave Utah a 16-13 lead with about four minutes remaining in regulation.
Below are the most and least helpful plays of the week.
|Sean Mannion pass to Jordan Villamin for 72 yard touchdown||ORS||0.35||4||14:40||2||3||72|
|C.J. Davidson rush for 32 yard touchdown||CLEM||0.33||4||9:59||1||10||32|
|Sean Mannion pass to Jordan Villamin for 2 yard touchdown||ORS||0.31||OT||n/a||4||2||2|
|Devontae Booker rush for 15 yard touchdown||UTH||0.29||OT||n/a||2||10||15|
|Devontae Booker rush for 53 yards to the ORS 6||UTH||0.27||4||6:00||3||2||59|
|Michael Hunnicutt 19 yard field goal attempt is no good||OKL||-0.54||4||3:53||4||2||2|
|Trevor Romaine 37 yard field goal attempt is no good||ORS||-0.28||OT||n/a||4||2||2|
|Sean Mannion sacked at Utah 32 for a loss of 6 yards||ORS||-0.23||4||0:45||3||5||26|
|Trevor Knight pass intercepted by KSU-Danzel McDaniel and returned for a 4 yard touchdown||OKL||-0.16||2||14:12||1||11||99|
|Michael Hunnicutt extra point is blocked||OKL||-0.16||4||10:35||n/a||n/a||3|
Photo: Sue Ogrocki / Associated Press