Should Pirates Pay Konnor Griffin Early? Lessons From MLB History

The Pittsburgh Pirates have announced that they are negotiating a deal with their top prospect, Konnor Griffin. The nineteen-year-old infielder is the consensus top prospect in the sport, and is starting the season in AAA with the Indianapolis Indians.

Griffin would be the 10th player in baseball to be given a long-term deal before they make an appearance in baseball if the Pirates can work out a deal. I think Griffin is going to be a great player for a long time, and I hope Pittsburgh can keep him through the prime of his career.

However, how beneficial have these other contracts been for players with no service time? I’ll be ranking each player to receive one of these deals, and grading if it was a good move for the team or not. Colton Emmerson and Cooper Pratt both received contracts without service time this year, so I will not rank them yet. Here are the other seven players ranked.

1. Evan White: .165/.235/.308 WAR: -0.7, HR: 10
   The bottom of this list has some bad players. Evan White signed a 6-year, $55.5 million deal with the Mariners, but he only lasted in the big leagues for two seasons. White did win a Gold Glove in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but outside of that, it was a bad signing for Seattle.
2. Jon Singleton: .197/.299/.345 WAR: -1.3, HR: 29
   The fight for last place was a tight battle, and if Singleton hadn’t made it back to the majors after his short two-year stint with the Astros, he would have been the worst player here; however, since he played for five years, he gets the nod. Singleton battled off-field issues and struggled to stay in baseball for most of his career, but at least his contract was only a $10 million deal with Houston.
3. Scott Kingery: .227/.278/.382 WAR: -0.2, HR: 30
   Finishing up the tier of really bad players, we’ve got former Phillie Scott Kingery. What separates Kingery from the rest of the players with negative WAR is that he had one season with an OPS+ of 101, during which he generated 2.7 WAR. His contract was only for $24 million, but I’m sure Philadelphia still would’ve held off on this deal with hindsight.
4. Eloy Jiménez: .269/.318/.462 WAR: 5.3, HR 95
   We’ve officially reached the point of the list where the players aren’t that bad. Eloy Jimenez signed a large 6-year $43 million deal shortly before he made his first appearance with the club in 2019. Jimenez had a 31-home run season as a rookie and a 142 OPS+ season in 2022. In an injury-shortened 2024, Jimenez had his only season as a below-average offensive player, but he never really reached his potential as a top-3 prospect in baseball. His highs are most definitely higher than those of other players above him on this list, but the lows and shortened career are too much to overlook.
5. Colt Keith: .261/.323/.398, WAR: 2.6, HR: 26
   Here’s my first prediction-based ranking on this list. Colt Keith signed a team-friendly 6-year deal for $28.6 million during the winter before his debut in 2024. Keith had a rough rookie season, but took a nice step forward as an everyday utility player for the Tigers. Keith has looked great so far in 2026 and has looked like he could be the missing piece in Detroit’s lineup. He certainly hasn’t had a peak as high as Jimenez's. Still, I believe he could find himself playing in the majors for a long time, given his ability to play all over the diamond while providing above-average offensive production.
6. Jackson Chourio: .272/.317/.463, WAR: 6.1, HR: 42
   The top two on this list are pretty cut-and-dry. Milwaukee took a shot with Jackson Chourio, signing him to an 8-year $82 million deal, and it’s seemed like great value so far. Chourio hasn’t been an All-Star at this point in his career, but he’s been a solid piece for a Brewers lineup that can sometimes lag behind a very solid rotation. Some people might have Chourio as the top player on this list, and by the end of his career, he very well could, but I’m not willing to move the next guy off the top spot just yet.
7. Luis Robert Jr: .260/.314/.455, WAR: 15.8, HR: 103
   The top player on this list is surprisingly the only guy to make it to an All-Star game at this point in their careers. The White Sox signed Luis Robert Jr. to a $26 million deal before his big league career began, and it seemed like a steal for the first four years of his career. He finished 12th in MVP voting in a 38-home run season. Injuries have been a massive problem throughout Robert’s career, but they really seemed to weigh him down during his final two years in Chicago. He’s had a hot start since moving to New York in 2026, and if he can stay healthy, he can still be an elite player. No matter the case, he still lands at the one slot on this list.

After ranking these players, it was shocking to see how little production they have had at the major league level. 

More teams are starting to offer contracts earlier and earlier, and it has worked with many guys who have barely started their careers, like Ronald Acuna or Roman Anthony. If the Pirates can sign Griffin to a long-term deal, I still think they absolutely should, just to show they are still trying to be a competitive organization.