Sunday Scaries: the Week 7 bets you should avoid

Sunday Scaries: the Week 7 bets you should avoid

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We’re almost halfway through the NFL regular season and the Sunday’s are still scary — and not for betting reasons.

On Monday, the Vegas Raiders sent their O-line home to quarantine after Trent Brown, a starting linemen, tested positive for the coronavirus. As of this morning, four of the five linemen have been removed from the COVID list.

The Buffalo Bills have also placed four players on their COVID reserve list after tight end, Dawson Knox, tested positive for the virus.

As for the bets, I’m winning over 50 percent of my picks — way over the dramatically low bar I set for myself at the beginning of the season.

The point of the Sunday Scaries is to highlight the unglamorous games and lines of the week. Every Sunday, I try to pick the worst spreads and explain why you should avoid betting four games. Because, be honest, you can’t bet ’em all.

With everyone else in sports media telling you who to lock in, there should be a site telling you who to avoid.

Here are the spreads I don’t like this week.

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Bills @ Jets (+10)

Bills @ Jets (+10)

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: the Week 7 bets you should avoid
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Another week, another Jets game featured on the Sunday Scaries.

These two teams faced off in Week 1. On that first Sunday, I told you not to bet on this game, too. “We don’t know enough about these 2020 Jets to see if they are legitimate conference title contenders,” one idiot (me) wrote. We know now.

I took the Jets +6.5 and they lost by 10. Since that week, the Jets have been blown out in virtually every game.

So why should you stay away from this one? Clearly the Bills, and breakout QB Josh Allen, are the better team and will likely blow the doors off New York… right?

Maybe. But betting any double-digit spread should make you scared. A few weeks ago, I picked the Raiders +13 to cover against Kansas City. Vegas won that game. The week before I took the Ravens -13.5 to beat Washington. Baltimore covered by half a point. Point is, these high-spread games can be a crapshoot. The Jets, with the return of Sam Darnold under center, can score garbage time points in the fourth quarter and still cover.

I know you want to bet against an 0-6 team that was just shut out by the Dolphins. But save your money this Sunday. Wait for a better number.

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Browns @ Bengals (+3)

Browns @ Bengals (+3)

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Baker Mayfield and the Browns looked awful last week. Good news for Cleveland? They play the Bengals today.

But don’t lock the Browns in yet. Cincinnati is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) and 1-1 ATS at home. Cleveland, 4-2 overall, comes into this game having already beaten the Bengals and rookie QB Joe Burrow in Week 2. The Browns should be favored here. But be wary of a Cincinnati team that has played in five of six one-score games.

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Dallas @ Washington Football Team (-1)

Dallas @ Washington Football Team (-1)

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The NFC East is trash. How bad, you ask? A Cowboys win will put the 2-4 team in first place. A Dallas loss will create a two way tie for second with Washington. But no matter who wins this game, every NFC East team will be below .500 heading into Week 8.

Both teams suck, but the favored Cowboys and back Zeke Elliott are even worse against the spread. If you’ve been fading Dallas, congratulations, you’re making money. The Cowboys are one of three winless teams ATS. But do you want to put your cash on Kyle Allen and Washington, who handed the Giants their first win of the season last week? Betting against Dallas is always tempting, but I would exercise caution this week. Stay away from this one.

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Steelers @ Titans (+1.5)

Steelers @ Titans (+1.5)

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A good game featured on the Sunday Scaries? Sure, why not.

This is the matchup of the one o’clock window. But the spread in this game that scares me. Vegas is basically telling us to pick a winner, but I’m not sure which undefeated team has the edge. Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh? Who blew out the Browns last Sunday. Or Derrick Henry and Tennessee? A team that’s looked surprisingly good since their COVID outbreak. I don’t know. But I know I want to pass on betting this spread.

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If you can’t resist…

If you can’t resist…

Last week was another 2-2 week for the Sunday Scaries. Last Sunday, I predicted a Dolphins blowout and I took Atlanta to cover (they won). I was wrong to take the Pats, and Baltimore fucked up my winning week when they gave up garbage time points to the Eagles.

With that, here are my picks for Week 7. I would still stay away from these games if I were you, but I also have a 12-11 record betting the toughest lines of the week through six weeks. Maybe these Sundays aren’t scaring me yet?

  • Please take the Bills. I know 10 points are a lot to lay. But the Jets are that bad.
  • Everyone thinks the Browns are dead. I don’t. Take Cleveland in the battle of Ohio. Unpopular opinion, but I like Baker to bounce back this game.
  • As I said before, Dallas is 0-6 ATS. I think they’ll be 0-7 by 4 p.m. Yes, take the Football Team in this one. Washington’s defense will create problems for Andy Dalton.
  • The Titans have been in four of five one-score games. They’ll be in another one this week, but I like the Steelers to come out on top in Nashville.
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