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Tampa Bay's Overtime Fumble Was The Most Costly Fuckup In Week 8

Illustration for article titled Tampa Bays Overtime Fumble Was The Most Costly Fuckup In Week 8

After receiving the ball to start overtime, Tampa Bay could have ended the game with a touchdown drive. But Tampa tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins fumbled on the first scrimmage play of overtime, and Minnesota linebacker Anthony Barr returned the fumble for a touchdown, which ended the game and gave Minnesota the win. The fumble return was the most detrimental play in Sunday's NFL games, according to data from Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics. The play lowered Tampa Bay's Win Probability 52 percentage points from 52 percent to 0 percent (which just means it was the last play of the game, and it ended in a Tampa Bay loss).


It's ironic, because the Bucs' Mike James had just minutes earlier registered the second-highest leveraged play this week, adding 44 points of win probability on a fourth-down touchdown run late in the fourth quarter, to give the Bucs a lead. (Minnesota would kick a late field goal to tie and force OT.)

Another back-and-forth game Sunday accounted for a few of most impactful plays of the week. Down by three with 93 seconds remaining, Carson Palmer threw a deep touchdown pass to John Brown, which gave Arizona a late lead. The pass was the most positive play of the week as it raised Arizona's Win Probability 61 percentage points from 26 percent to 87 percent.


On the following drive, Nick Foles led Philadelphia into Arizona territory, giving his team a chance to win the game. But Foles' heave into the end zone on the last play of the game was ruled incomplete. The play lowered Philadelphia's Win Probability 39 percentage points from 39 percent to 0 percent.

Here are the most and least helpful plays of the week.

PlayTeamWPAEPAQtrTimeDownDistanceYd Line
Carson Palmer pass to John Brown for 75 yard touchdownARZ0.616.4841:333575
Mike James run for 1 yardTB0.442.8942:35418
Russell Wilson pass to Luke Willson for 23 yard touchdownSEA0.412.4440:5311023
Andy Dalton run for 1 yard touchdownCIN0.344.0141:01411
Matt Prater 48 yard field goal is goodDET0.34-1.0740:0431630
PlayTeamWPAEPAQtrTimeDownDistanceYd Line
Mike Glennon pass to Austin Seferian-Jenkins for 10 yards, fumbles, recovered by MIN-55-Anthony Barr, returned for 27 yard touchdownTB-0.52-6.52OT14:5311083
Nick Foles pass incomplete intended for Jordan MatthewsPHI-0.39-1.1040:0131016
Bobby Rainey rush for 2 yardsTB-0.37-1.9543:163310
Andy Dalton sacked for -13 yards, fumbles, recovered by BLT-51-Daryl Smith at CIN 47, returned 39 yardsCIN-0.37-7.9546:492632
Blake Bortles pass intercepted by Louis Delmas, returned for 81 yard touchdownJAX-0.33-9.47215:0011528

[Advanced Football Analytics]

Photo: Steve Nesius / Associated Press


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