The Milwaukee Brewers Are MLB’s Best Team Even if You Don’t Believe It

The sun rises, it sets, and the Milwaukee Brewers win a baseball game.

The Brewers beat the New York Mets 3-2 on Friday for their seventh straight victory, 10th in 11 games and MLB-leading 71st of the season. They’re 50-19 since May 18.

The final out against the Mets was a highlight, with outfielder Blake Perkins cutting down the potential tying run at the plate from center without a relay throw. But what the Brewers have going is bigger than one play or player.

And yet, many baseball fans who look at the Brewers’ record see only doubt. They can’t be that good, can they?

Anyone scrutinizing the Brewers for obvious weak spots or an inordinate amount of good luck will be disappointed. But the evidence for them being the best team in Major League Baseball is not overwhelming, either.

The Brewers are sixth in the majors in runs scored with 573 and second in fewest runs allowed with 445. They’re on a 100-win pace.

The individuals are not as overwhelmingly impressive by comparison to the whole. If the voting were held today for the National League MVP and Cy Young awards, nobody on the Brewers would finish in the top five in either race.

The weak link in their offense is mediocre power. They’re 22nd in home runs and 18th in slugging percentage, but second in on-base percentage and second in stolen bases. The only spot in their lineup that isn’t producing better than league average is shortstop.

Their best hitter — over the past 23 games, anyway — has been Andrew Vaughn, who is batting an unlikely .358/.426/.667 with seven home runs in 81 at-bats. Vaughn, once a top prospect with the Chicago White Sox, does not resemble the hitter who was bottoming out with them earlier this season.

They haven’t recently had outfielder Jackson Chourio, who finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting a year ago, because of a hamstring injury sustained in late July. Just 21, Chourio could emerge as Milwaukee’s best hitter come playoff time. He’s expected to return late this month or in early September.

Brewers pitchers collectively have a low ERA but rank toward the middle of the pack in walks and home runs allowed. Right-hander Freddy Peralta is on pace to have his best season, but is no better than the ninth- or 10th-best starter in the league. Quinn Priester, acquired in an early season trade with the Red Sox — who no doubt regret it — has been a pleasant surprise.

The big pitching star of the first half, rookie right-hander Jacob Misiorowski, made the All-Star team but has pitched just 33 1/3 innings. He’s on the injured list with a bruised tibia after getting hit with a line drive but is due to return before September. Having him available in the playoffs changes the calculus for his team.

So, potentially, does the return of right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who missed much of 2023 and all of 2024 because of a shoulder injury that required surgery. In five starts this season, he has a 2.22 ERA with 27 strikeouts and four walks in 28 1/3 innings — a 9.25-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The bullpen, like the starting rotation as a group, is also middle of the pack in total results. But Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Nick Mears are above-average leverage relievers.

The Brewers seem due to regress, but if most of the lineup continues to hit into October, and they get strong pitching at the top of the rotation and bullpen, they will be as dangerous as anyone in the postseason field. The franchise has never won the World Series.

The Brewers’ incredible record hasn’t come from nowhere, nor should their success come as a complete surprise. The Brewers won 93 games a season ago, surpassing the 90-victory mark for the third time in four years. They’ve been one of the winningest regular-season teams in the league for the better part of a decade.

The doubt from the outside stems from Milwaukee ownership shedding multiple stars in cost-conscious moves ahead of free agency. This past offseason, they traded closer Devin Williams and let go of star shortstop Willy Adames. The offseason before, they traded ace right-hander Corbin Burnes. At the 2022 trade deadline, they moved closer Josh Hader.

And then there was the loss of highly regarded manager Craig Counsell, a free agent in his own right, who signed with the Chicago Cubs before the 2024 season. No matter — new manager Pat Murphy appears to handle a clubhouse as well as anyone, and the Brewers don’t yet appear worse off with Murphy at the helm.

Coming into this season, most pundits believed the Brewers had been worn down by attrition — the loss of star power, plus the diminishing effectiveness and availability of the stars they kept, like slugger Christian Yelich and Woodruff. Combined with what many analysts considered unimpressive efforts by Milwaukee’s front office to replenish the roster, the doubts seemed justified.

Preseason PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus had the Brewers finishing 11 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.

A little over a quarter of the way into the season, the pundits seemed to be right. On May 17, the Brewers were four games under .500. Even a month later, with the Brewers four games over .500, they were still 6 1/2 games back of the Cubs.

The cost-saving measures finally appeared to be catching up to Milwaukee. You can only pinch a penny so thin, right?

The Brewers’ roster might not add up to a big payroll, but the front office continues to find enough change in the cushions to keep the roster competitive — even exceptional. They’ve been beating the expectations of doubters for years.