The Super spread: Deadspin’s Super Bowl pick ATS

Betting the game? Here’s what you should know.
Betting the game? Here’s what you should know.
Illustration: Getty Images

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

Tampa Bay isn’t a home team because they get to play in their home stadium. The league alternates home and away teams by conference every year. Honestly, Tampa just got lucky. Speaking of coincidences, the Bucs will not be the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home market. And with only a third of the stadium filled for tonight’s game, this isn’t really the year for a home-field advantage. Still, Tampa is getting 3 points against Kansas City, who’ve been the best team in football all season.

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These two teams already played each other in November in a contest decided by, you guessed it, three points. The game began with Tyreek Hill doing backflips around Tampa’s secondary… literally and ended with Patrick Mahomes throwing for 462 yards and three touchdowns. But Kansas City’s defense let Tom Brady and the Bucs run up a score late. The Chiefs managed to pull out a 27-24 victory, but something tells me we won’t see a repeat of last year’s matchup.

The Pick: If you’ve been riding Tampa Bay ATS this postseason, congratulations, you’re making money. The Bucs are 2-0-1 ATS and 3-0 depending on your bookie. For the third straight game, they’ll be underdogs by around three points.

After championship Sunday, Vegas opened the Super Bowl betting line at KC -3.5. But due to a recent influx of public money on the Bucs, the line was lowered to 3 on Friday. I like Tampa to cover as well. Of course, 3.5 is a more appetizing spread if you can still get it, but I think Tampa will keep it close in a high-scoring game. The Bucs haven’t scored less than 30 points since December 13 and the Chiefs are coming off a 38 point victory in the AFC Championship Game.

The KC. offense is, without question, one of the best in the league. But their defense has allowed teams to climb back into games late. The Chiefs are 1-1 ATS in the postseason and they could very well win another Super Bowl tonight. But if they do, I’ll be closer than you think.

I’m not going to keep betting against Tom Brady in the postseason, especially when he’s the one getting the points.

Weather: Late last week, this game looked like it could’ve been disrupted with thunderstorms. Now, the forecast calls for 67º and clear skies at kickoff.