Top 5 overachievers in MLB thus far

The thing about baseball is that sometimes you think a team will be good, but they’re not. Other times, you think a team will be bad, but they’re really good! O fortuna!

Here are some examples of teams in the latter camp. Clubs you thought would suck, but have gone and flipped the script on us all. Maybe they’ll keep overachieving, or maybe the Mets will fall apart down the stretch like they always do.

Sure on paper they’re great, but that’s always been the case, and they’ve always fallen flat. Noah Syndergaard has been a really good starting pitcher. A really good starting pitcher! On the Angels! Not named Ohtani! Maybe we shouldn’t be too surprised that a healthy Trout along with Ohtani are succeeding. The true surprise is the contribution they’ve gotten from Taylor Ward, a fourth outfielder type player before this season but now maybe the best hitter in the game. Ohtani and Trout can’t do it alone and so far they haven’t had to.

There may be some who disagree with the Yankees being on this list given that overachieve may be a slightly generous term for one of the top payrolls in baseball, but this team is far exceeding expectations. Personally, I didn’t think they were as good as the Blue Jays, Rays, or even the Red Sox, and here they are with the best record in the AL. The question with them was whether or not they could have a true No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole. They needed one guy to step up, and then every one of them did. Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, and especially nasty Nestor Cortes Jr. have all taken huge strides since last season to form the best starting rotation in baseball. Aaron Judge turned down what was apparently an insane amount of money in order to pursue an even more insane amount of money and that decision looks better every day.

They have a similar problem to the Yankees with regards to being on this list because of their payroll, but come on, it’s the Mets. No one thought they’d be this good, right? They’ve been this good without Jacob DeGrom throwing one pitch and with Max Scherzer recently suffering an oblique injury that will keep him out for six to eight weeks. Not to mention that Francisco Lindor has found his Cleveland form.

This team finished last in the division a season ago with just 73 wins. That seemed like a bit of an anomaly as they were expected to be good last year, but still this drastic and quick turnaround is surprising. I expected off-season acquisitions of Carlos Correa, Gio Urshela, and Gary Sanchez to move the needle a smidge, but not this much. If this list is meant to compare results to expectations, it’s worth noting that Byron Buxton was probably expected to play in hardly any games, but he’s already played in 30. He’s nearly halfway to his 61 from last season. Buxton has cooled down significantly from his hot start to the season, batting just .202, but he’s still hit 11 home runs and has an OPS+ of 130.

They’re another team that’s good on paper, but after last season’s Titanic-esque collapse it was hard to imagine them accomplishing that much this season. With Fernando Tatis Jr. starting the year on the IL, I thought this team’s best hope was to try and stick around and then see what they can do when he gets back. With Tatis still not seeing the field, the Padres are tied for the second best record in the NL and are 1.5 games back of the Dodgers for the division lead. Manny Machado’s average of .357 and OPS of 1.021 are both the best in the NL. Now rather than the prospect of Tatis joining mid-season making this a viable team, it makes them scary.