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Who Is The Least Stupid Pundit Of The Last Four NFL Seasons? Updating The Pundit Rankings

Illustration for article titled Who Is The Least Stupid Pundit Of The Last Four NFL Seasons? Updating The Pundit Rankings

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With Super Bowl XLVII in the books, let's review how the 25 pundits we tracked from ESPN and Sports Illustrated fared with their pre-season prognostications. We tracked their predictions across 14 categories: 8 Division Winners, 2 Conference Champions, Super Bowl Champion, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, and Most Valuable Player.


As we discussed in our last sports post, Dennis Dillon and Jim Trotter of SI were the only two that called for a Ravens-49ers Super Bowl, with both correctly picking the Ravens to win it all. So it should be no surprise that they topped the 2012 rankings. As a reminder, the $1 yield metric calibrates predictions for boldness by measuring the average payout (using Vegas odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit's selections

PunditHit Rate$1 Yield
Dennis Dillon (SI)71%$3.42
Jim Trotter (SI)64%$3.26
Dan Graziano (ESPN)57%$1.97
Kevin Seifert (ESPN)57%$1.97
Jeffri Chadiha (ESPN)57%$1.53
Jamison Hensley (ESPN)57%$0.61
Kerry J. Byrne (SI)50%$1.69
KC Joyner (ESPN)50%$1.36
Andrew Brandt (ESPN)50%$1.33
Ashley Fox (ESPN)50%$0.89
Mike Sando (ESPN)50%$0.89
Vegas Favorites46%$1.27
John Clayton (ESPN)43%$1.19
Pat Yasinskas (ESPN)43%$1.19
Bill Williamson (ESPN)43%$1.19
James Walker (ESPN)43%$0.71
Paul Kuharsky (ESPN)43%$0.71
Tom Mantzouranis (SI)36%$1.10
Andrew Perloff (SI)36%$0.95
Jeff Diamond (SI)36%$0.95
Peter King (SI)36%$0.62
Chris Burke (SI)36%$0.56
Bill Barnwell (ESPN)36%$0.54
Don Banks (SI)36%$0.54
Adam Schefter (ESPN)29%$0.38
Matt Williamson (ESPN)21%$0.28
Pundit Average45%$01.19

Let's now break down the individual categories. In the table below, we compare the percentage of pundits that correctly predicted each category with the corresponding Las Vegas odds before the season began. All of the pundits picked the Patriots to win the AFC East and the Texans to win the AFC South, for instance, while none thought the Redskins would win the NFC East or Adrian Peterson would take the MVP trophy home. Interestingly, eight of the 25 picked Luke Kuechly to win the Defensive ROY award despite an only 11% implied probability of victory according to Vegas (Kuechly was the favorite, but it was a very fragmented group).

CategoryWinner% Pundits CorrectVegas OddsPundits
Super BowlRavens8%5%Dillon, Trotter
AFC ChampionRavens24%12%n/a
NFC Champion49ers12%14%Byrne, Dillon, Trotter
AFC EastPatriots100%80%n/a
AFC NorthRavens52%40%n/a
AFC SouthTexans100%83%n/a
AFC WestBroncos40%43%n/a
NFC EastRedskins0%11%n/a
NFC NorthPackers96%69%n/a
NFC SouthFalcons60%43%n/a
NFC West49ers88%71%
Offensive ROYGriffin III8%13%n/a
Defensive ROYKuechly32%11%n/a

We launched our NFL coverage with the 13 pundits for whom we tracked predictions in each of the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons. Here are their rankings updated for 2012 performance, with Jim Trotter separating from the pack following three consecutive strong seasons. You can see all the individual predictions by clicking on the pundit links.

Jim Trotter$0.35$1.94$1.34$3.26$1.72
Kevin Seifert$0.36$0.51$1.81$1.97$1.16
Vegas Favorites$0.90$0.72$1.54$1.27$1.11
Jeffri Chadiha$0.54$1.33$0.99$1.53$1.10
Adam Schefter$0.63$1.71$1.51$0.38$1.06
Peter King$0.75$1.97$0.85$0.62$1.05
Pat Yasinksaks$0.80$0.80$1.35$1.19$1.04
Matt Williamson$0.35$1.96$1.35$0.28$0.99
Bill Williamson$0.54$0.54$1.70$1.16$0.98
John Clayton$0.71$0.50$1.45$1.19$0.96
Mike Sando$0.52$0.89$1.45$1.19$0.94
Paul Kuharsky$0.18$1.98$0.69$0.71$0.89
Don Banks$0.38$0.54$1.47$0.54$0.73
James Walker$0.71$0.54$0.84$0.71$0.70

Note that we will soon be adding SI's Kerry Byrne ($1.51 yield) and Andrew Perloff ($0.72) to the site now that they have three seasons of tracked predictions (2010-12).

To see our entire coverage and/or to make your own predictions, visit our Sports section.


PunditTracker's mission is to bring accountability to the prediction industry by cataloging and scoring the predictions of pundits.

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