Why the Baseball Hall of Fame Might Welcome Zero Players This Year

What if they gave a Hall of Fame induction ceremony and nobody came?

It would be boring for us, bad for local business and abysmal for Major League Baseball, but it just might happen in Cooperstown, N.Y. in late July. Looking at both ballots, one in the hands of baseball writers, the other to be considered by a 16-person committee examining the "Contemporary Baseball Era," the Hall faces a nonzero chance that zero new players make it in. 

Aside from the 2020 pandemic season, it hasn't happened since 1965.

It would mean the broadcaster who wins the Ford Frick Award (or their representative), would have the dais all by their lonesome. At least the winner probably would be trained to keep hold of the crowd's attention. Somewhere, you maybe can hear commissioner Rob Manfred going, "Aw, frick."

On the BBWAA side, none of the first-year candidates are likely to be elected when the announcement comes Jan. 20. The only viable candidate (someday) is left-hander Cole Hamels. He had a career that was similar to, but not as good as, lefty CC Sabathia, who was a first-ballot selection a year ago. Based on that distinction, plus early chatter on social media, the case for Hamels this time seems unlikely to be made with enough of the electorate.

The only holdovers who have a chance for election this cycle are sluggers Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones. Beltrán, in his fourth season on the ballot, needs to improve about 5% to reach the 75% threshold for election. Five percent doesn't sound like a lot, but it's too much to just assume he'll get it. Jones, in his ninth of 10 possible seasons, needs to improve nearly 9%. Same deal, plus 4%.

Beltrán has a well-rounded case for Cooperstown, and figures to make it eventually, but a plurality of voters say they have not forgiven his role in the Houston Astros high-tech/trash-can/sign-stealing scandal. And, while some believe Jones to be the best defensive outfielder of all time, that is a tough assertion to prove. He also wasn't nearly the hitter Beltrán was overall, and had a lot of mediocre individual seasons too.

None of the other holdovers on the ballot broke 40 percent a year ago, meaning none among Chase Utley, Alex Rodríguez, Manny Ramírez, Andy Pettitte and Omar Vizquel are likely to come close to 75% this time. Ramírez missing for the 10th time would mean he's off the BBWAA ballot going forward.

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens lead the Contemporary Era ballot, and while their credentials are evident so, too, are their associations with PEDs, not to mention respective off-the-field personal allegations that could factor in, depending on who is doing the voting. Both players did poorly the previous time they were considered by a similar committee. It does not seem like either are about to break through.

As for the other Contemporary Era players being discussed, if the right combination of voters comprise the committee, as happened with Harold Baines a few years ago, Don Mattingly or Dale Murphy could make it. And while voters also could realize collectively that Gary Sheffield had a better career than Fred McGriff (who made it two years ago via a similar committee), PEDs remain a barrier.

With a possible work stoppage on the horizon after the 2026 season because of an owner's lockout, having no new Hall of Famers as a lead-in would be a sickly one-two punch for MLB.