Best MLB Bets for Friday, September 12th: Top Baseball Betting Picks Today

It’s a night without much football, we’re running out of time in the MLB season, let’s find a couple winners!

Season Record: 10-8-2, +2.09 Units

Royals at Phillies

Over 9 (-115 DraftKings)

Michael Lorenzen seems like an interesting guy, and a fantastic athlete. He could be a gold glove center fielder if he gives up pitching. Well maybe not now at age 33, but at one time it looked possible. He starts for the Royals tonight, and he’s just not a great SP these days. His 20.7% K% places him in the 36th percentile as per Statcast. He has a 4.63 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the season, and with an xERA and FIP both at 4.53, that looks pretty accurate.

He spent time on the IL recently, but in 24.1 IP over 4 starts since he’s back he’s in the exact same form as before, as he has a 4.74 ERA. He gets a Revenge Game here, though I doubt he has any hard feelings as he pitched a no-hitter for the Phils in his brief time there late in the 2023 season. More importantly, he has a tough task at hand facing a Phillies team that has one of the best lineups in MLB, even with Trea Turner and Alec Bohm out.

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are still there, and Harrison Bader is leading off and on a .425/.465/.700 run in September.

The Phillies will start Walker Buehler in his team debut. Clearly they want to prove they can win no matter who they start, as the one-time Dodger ace had a miserable 5.46 ERA, 1.58 WHIP run with the Red Sox. The Royals do not pose the biggest obstacle out there, but Buehler has just not gotten anyone out this year and I’m not sure the Phils can fix him this quickly. I’ll take the Over.

Pirates at Nationals

Nationals ML -110

When in doubt, fade the Pirates on the road. They have gone just 22-49 away from Steel City this year. That comes out to a -29.2% ROI as per VSiN.com. They have hit an impossibly bad .213/.286/.329 on the road this year and are fresh off a sweep just up I-95 in Baltimore.

The Nats meanwhile have hit a bit better lately, with a 108 wRC+ in September even after getting blanked last night in Miami. Their starter tonight, Andrew Alvarez, has looked great. Ok, it’s only 2 starts, but he’s got a 1.86 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 9.2 IP. His early 15.2% K% is kind of worrisome, but he’s gotten by with inducing super soft 86 MPH EV contact and a lot of grounders (50%).

I’ll take a shot on the bad team playing better ball at the moment and roll with the Nats.