NCAA Tournament Sweet 16's most vulnerable teams

By the time this week is over, the NCAA Tournament field will again shrink by at least 400 percent. One-fourth of the teams to win a pair of March Madness games last week will do so again. Half of them won’t win one more game. And after riding high over the last week and adding important wins to a program’s resume, the lifelong quest to be a champion will end for a dozen teams.

Upsets always happen, so which teams are more vulnerable to having their seasons end in the Sweet 16? Here’s your list, with one representative from each of the eight matchups with berths to the Elite Eight on the line.

Yup. The Crimson Tide didn’t really play well in either NCAA Tournament game thus far and still got through Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Maryland with ease. Now they face a San Diego State team that beat two double-digit seeds to get to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t mean the Aztecs aren’t battle-tested and ready to take out Alabama.

San Diego State has a veteran roster that won arguably the most underrated conference in America in the Mountain West. Alabama slipped up against two teams that would never beat them even with sluggish play. That trend ends with the Aztecs. The Crimson Tide are NCAA Tournament favorites for a reason, but upsets bigger than this have happened.

Staying in the Southeastern Conference, the Vols avoided Purdue and are the second-highest seed remaining in the East Region. Tennessee will face the lowest seed remaining in Florida Atlantic in the Sweet 16. The Owls are dangerous with a squad that has played tons of games together.

After thoroughly beating Duke in the Round of 32, Tennessee got over the first-weekend hump it had been tripped up at so many times. Rick Barnes’ squad still has the ability to be tripped up with how it plays offense. And after FAU went through Memphis and Fairleigh Dickinson to make it to Madison Square Garden, its defense is good enough to stop the Volunteers.

The Cougars looked like they were about to be eliminated from the NCAA Tournament after one half against Auburn in the Round of 32. Then the Tigers had one of the worst halves of basketball I’ve ever seen. Sure, you could credit Kelvin Sampson’s team with playing stout defense, but Auburn messed it up more than Houston took it from them. And the health of Marcus Sasser is still a little unclear.

Miami stands in the Cougars’ way of advancing to the Elite Eight and then a possible return home for the Final Four. And after how the Hurricanes dispatched a strong Indiana team, the ACC’s regular-season champions have proven at its best, it can hang with anyone. And Houston easily falls into that vulnerable category.

The Huskies went through a bit of adversity this season and have had a reverse bell curve in terms of how well they’ve played. UConn started the season as national-championship contenders, then had a rough patch in the middle of the season, and is now back in prime form. The Huskies proved it with strong showings against Iona and Saint Mary’s.

Arkansas has been doubted nearly from the onset of this season for falling short of the national-championship contender status it was given before a single ball was tipped. But somehow, the Razorbacks are still around while Kansas, Purdue, Marquette, and others favorites aren’t. Eric Musselman’s teams might be built for this time of year.

We have a rematch of one of the greatest college basketball games of all time. The Bulldogs will look for a similar result as the 2021 Final Four against UCLA, with Mick Cronin having plenty of roster turnover since that game in Indianapolis. Drew Timme (pictured) is somehow still around and Gonzaga still hasn’t won a national championship during Mark Few’s tenure.

Yet, the Bulldogs typically lose before the Final Four with their current roster makeup. Even with UCLA’s injury problems, the Bruins have been one of the best teams in the country over the last month and have shown determination in the NCAA Tournament. History isn’t likely to repeat itself from two years ago.

Sean Miller’s (pictured) squad looked tons better in the Round of 32 than it did in the Round of 64. The Musketeers nearly didn’t make it out of the first weekend with a close game against Kennesaw State. Then Xavier destroyed Pittsburgh to make it to the Sweet 16. You don’t know what Musketeers’ team will show up.

In facing Texas, Xavier doesn’t have any room for error and the Longhorns typically find a way to win in games of his dichotomy. Dylan Disu is coming off of a star-making performance against Penn State and shouldn’t slow down in this one. The Big 12 was better than the Big East all year and battle-tested Texas should advance.

Speaking of the Big East, the Bluejays probably never expected to face Princeton in the Sweet 16. All Creighton has to do is get through a No. 15 seed to get to the Elite Eight? Ask Purdue about beating a team from the second-to-last seed line from New Jersey. Too soon? Anyway, the Tigers aren’t your typical double-digit seed, especially one that was seeded so low.

Princeton took down Arizona and Missouri to make it to the Sweet 16 and showed two very different sides of itself to win two NCAA Tournament games. The Tigers used their defense to take down the Wildcats, while Mizzou was taken down at its own game by Princeton with a subpar offensive showing. How many more layers do the Ivy Leaguers have?

In Jerome Tang’s (pictured) first season in The Little Apple, the Wildcats are back in the Sweet 16. And after being one of the biggest unexpected success stories of the season, they’re the highest seed remaining in their region and should be favored until at least the Final Four. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though. This is far from a sure thing for KSU.

Tang’s bunch runs into Michigan State and while the Big Ten hasn’t won a national title since 2000, it was the Spartans to last achieve that feat. And can you ever truly count out a Tom Izzo-coached team at this time of year? It’d be ridiculous to count them out and the Wildcats’ attrition will make them vulnerable.