Week 8 NFL Betting Primer: Best Over/Under, Spread, Teaser and Prop Bets

A 3-1 week or better is always the goal. Fortunately, we were able to reel off another such showing last weekend, this one coming at a crucial time following the one and only below-.500 performance of the year. Let’s shoot for the same result.

Over/Unders: 3-2-1

Spreads: 4-2

Teasers: 5-1

Props: 3-3

Overall Record*: 15-8-1, +5.85 units

*Each over/under bet graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit 

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under: 52

Spread: Giants +9.5/Chiefs -9.5

This week’s telecast of Monday Night Football might be better suited for Monday Night Raw. It may get a little gory.

A Monday Night massacre is the more proper way to prognosticate this “showdown” between losing teams. Yes, that’s exactly what KC qualifies as now.

However, that’s the beauty of catching teams in the right spot. Do we really think the Chiefs are about to fall to 3-5 halfway through the campaign? And hold the same record as the rebuilding Giants?

Making matters more enticing for the Kansas City side, this will be a game following a loss. As I’ve already detailed multiple times before, this then becomes a favorable situation for Patrick Mahomes.

Look, the face-of-the-league superstar has seemingly been in a rut for about a month now, something we never see. But one thing that hasn’t changed is how Mahomes retaliates back from adversity.

After last week’s rare blowout defeat at the hands of Tennessee last week, the Chiefs have now dropped 12 regular season ballgames started by Mahomes since drafting him four years ago. In the previous 11 ensuing contests, not only did Mahomes collectively craft a delightful 106.8 passer rating, he also routinely lit up the scoreboard to a tune of 32 points per game. Additionally, Kansas City plated at least 24 points in each of those outings.

Throw in the fact that this will be in prime time for the world to see and you have to expect Mahomes — who looked absolutely miserable in a recent viral TikTok video produced by his annoying brother — to be absolutely on a warpath.

Such behavior can’t be promising for a Giants club that isn’t very good to begin with and is still down some key regulars. At the same time, they’ll be getting back at least one or two of Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard, which provides a boost.

No matter, it won’t be enough. When the Chiefs are down and have the chance to pounce on a much weaker opponent, they don’t waste that opportunity. New York getting healthier and coming off a respective win is why I think they can put up a fight and be useful for the total. Buying a point for the over is also recommended as to be safe if this goes the direction of a 31-20/34-17/37-14 rout.

Pick: OVER 51 (-130)

Pick: CHIEFS -9.5 (-110) 

GB-ARI O50 —> O40

Bengals -11 —> -1

Chiefs -9.5 —> +0.5

Well unfortunately, due to technical difficulties of not being able to get this week’s football betting primer up on Thursday, the opening leg of this teaser could only be present through Twitter:

(Speaking of, follow me @MattZylbert)

But that’s OK! You still have two gimmes in the form of Bengals-Jets and Giants-Chiefs. Is Mike White really going to take down the surging Bengals? How about a fired-up Patrick Mahomes — after being embarrassed last week for maybe the first time in his life — falling to the lowly banged-up Giants on Monday Night? No.

Just pair those two alongside one other game you feel comfortable maneuvering by an extra 10 points, in case you missed out on the first part. There are other big favorites on the board this week as well.

David Johnson Longest Reception

Over/Under 12.5 Yards

Sometimes, arriving at a winning prop bet involves more of the ‘how’ instead of ‘who.’ In other words, deciphering the particular scenario said prop will be unfolding in is what may trigger a win.

That being said, let’s look at another Rams matchup. Last week, we figured they’d beat the Lions decisively, and while their triumph was of a narrow margin, the game script still allowed Detroit to pepper targets the way of Kalif Raymond, who sailed nicely above 3.5 catches for us.

Next up is the Texans, a team that’s arguably worse (as long as Davis Mills is the starter) than the winless bunch LA just saw a week ago. This one is actually more likely to have the Rams comfortably ahead for the duration of the contest, and with that comes the ol’ throw-often-from-behind plan Houston will be pushed into.

Thus, we will latch onto David Johnson being one of the main beneficiaries — albeit for one simple lengthy reception.

The shackles are off Johnson after veteran Mark Ingram was dealt back to New Orleans earlier this week. Phillip Lindsay is still here but isn’t threatening to grab most of those extra touches now available, especially in the passing game. He’s hauled in only three balls this season.

Meanwhile, Johnson is always a factor through the air, hence how he’s averaged more than three catches per game for his career. When his team is losing by a sizable amount — like what is expected in this one — the 29-year-old apparently sticks out significantly to his quarterback.

How about this stat: Johnson’s been apart of 28 NFL games (including playoffs) in which his team lost by double-digits. In 21 of them, his longest reception was at least 12 yards, the desired mark to top on this prop. That’s a 75-percent success rate in relation to the number, and considering Houston is about to lose by a sizable amount here, this is a bet worth perusing.

Pick: Longest Reception OVER 12.5 Yards (-110)