MLB Opening Day Wednesday Pick: Yankees vs. Giants Best Bets

Happy MLB Opening Day to all who celebrate! 

And that is hopefully all of you! It's really more or a soft open since we get just one game, televised exclusively on Netflix. But hey, I will take it!

Yankees vs.Giants

Yankees ML (-120 BetMGM)

There is obviously not an awful lot to go on in Game 1 of the 2,430 games that MLB teams will play this season. 

But let’s give it a shot!

The Yankees and Giants both pretty much run back their 2025 lineups. 

In the Giants case that is not necessarily a good thing as they were kind of the definition of a middling team last year. And that was less true vs. lefties as they had just a 78 wRC+ vs. southpaws last year, 3rd worst in MLB. They face a super tough one tonight in Yankees ace Max Fried, who had pretty much a career year in his first season in the Bronx. Fried logged 195 IP of 2.86 ERA, 1.10 ball. He’s never been much of a K arm, rather he’s shown consistent ability to limit walks (6.7% career BB%) and keep the contact generally on the ground and soft. He has a career LA of 5.4 with a HardHit% of 35%.

The Giants two lineup additions do help a bit. 1B Luis Arraez is a throwback batting average machine who never strikes out and Harrison Bader ups the outfield defense enormously as he’ll both man center and bump Jung Ho Lee into RF.

The Yankees only change from the end of 2025 is that Jose Caballero will start for the injured Anthony Volpe at short. 

That’s actually a modest plus as Caballero is a better fielder and Volpe had just an 83 wRC+ last year. Otherwise it's the same guys that led MLB with a 118 wRC+ vs.righties. And hey we have a revenge angle as Aaron Judge “returns” to face the team he almost signed with a free agent (Arson Judge anyone?). Ok that’s a stretch, Judge grew up as a Giants fan.

Logan Webb starts for the Giants, and he’s pretty much a right handed version of Fried, though he did ramp up his K% to a career high 26.2% last year. He’s even more of a groundball pitcher than Fried (2.8 career LA) but also gives up harder contact. The Yankees probably won’t tee off against Webb, especially in a tough park for hitters. But I like them to put enough in play to eke out the win.