Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh: The Weirdest MVP Race Ever

With about a month to go in the 2025 season, the American League MVP deserves to go to … either Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh.

All Rise vs. Big Dumper — who ya got?

It’s hard to pick one over the other. It’s really that close through the first five months. Kind of hysterically close.

Coming into action Monday night, the Fangraphs WAR for both players was identical down to the tenths: Judge 7.3, Raleigh 7.3. Win probability added is close: Raleigh 3.91, Judge 3.65. They’re both great in high-leverage situations at the plate.

Both teams also came into play with 70 wins and a spot within the AL wild-card zone. You take Judge away from the Yankees, and they miss the playoffs. If you take Dumper away from the Mariners, the same goes for them.

Judge has been a better hitter overall, posting a .449 wOBA to Raleigh’s .391, but he hasn’t been a better power hitter: They have the same ISO at .345. If you just want to look at home runs and RBIs like some kind of dinosaur (seriously, go to bed), Raleigh leads in dingers 49-40 and in RBIs 106-92. If Judge gets hot, he might have a chance to close the RBI gap, with Mariners manager Dan Wilson moving Raleigh to second in the batting order this month.

Raleigh has played in eight more games because of time that Judge missed for an elbow injury. An eight-game difference isn’t enough to deeply impact the offensive numbers, but Judge’s sore elbow is definitely going to be a factor in the MVP race the rest of the way. If he can’t get on the field to play defense, Judge will have to seriously outslug Raleigh to beat him. It’s not happening right now.

In August, Judge came in batting .207/.378/.397 with three homers in 17 games. Raleigh’s on-base percentage has dipped for two months (it’s not even .300), but he’s also slugging nearly .500 in that span. The dog days. But he’s doing enough to dog paddle and contribute.

Another advantage for Raleigh comes because of his defensive position. Ranked ninth among catchers on defense by MLB Statcast, Raleigh has been the better fielder. Judge isn’t a bad fielder, but he hasn’t been as good as Raleigh, and he’s also been unable to get on the field wearing a glove because of his elbow. Defense is where the difference in fWAR is made up.

Somewhat surprisingly, Raleigh also has been a better baserunner than Judge. Not just with stolen bases, where Raleigh improbably leads 14-8, but overall. Baserunning isn’t going to be the reason Raleigh wins MVP if he wins it, but every bit helps when both players are producing the same value overall.

A few voters might lean toward Raleigh because Judge already has two MVPs, or because of Yankees disdain and fatigue. Those wouldn’t be good reasons to put Raleigh first. But he is having one of the best seasons ever by a catcher. It’s historic. So if the big numbers are close, it would be no shame to lean toward Dumper based on how cool it is.

One monkey wrench to watch over the final month: Bobby Witt Jr.’s fWAR is 6.5. He won’t win the MVP (probably), but if he puts up another .999 OPS in September like he’s doing in August, Witt might end up being the most valuable player in the AL anyway.