NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Colts, Jets, and Lions Picks Against the Spread

Green Bay is at home on bye this week after a tie with the Cowboys that took a lot out of Dallas, one of the teams with the most serious list of injuries entering Week 5.

A banged-up and tired Dallas team might be ripe for the picking for Aaron Glenn to get his first win as a head coach with the Jets.

And with the Packers idle, Glenn's former employer, the Detroit Lions, keeps on trucking to the top of the NFC North.

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET

The Colts are scoring on nearly 60 percent of their drives and have an efficiency rating the Raiders would love due to the balance Daniel Jones brings to the offense. His ability to run and Jonathan Taylor's 3.1-yard average after first contact has helped Indianapolis sustain drives even when they likely should be stopped. And guess who's coming to town this week? One of the league leaders in missed tackles, the Raiders.

What's working for the Colts is a higher potency in the first half, which lends Indianapolis a bend-don't-break approach on defense in the second half, when Geno Smith (seven INTs this season) is known to throw 50-50 balls and invite defensive backs to feast on his overconfidence across the middle.

With the Raiders not at full strength up front — left tackle Kolton Miller was placed on IR this week — Smith is set to face increased pressure.

Pick: Colts -7 over Raiders (-110)

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET

Good luck naming the starting front five for the Cowboys, and maybe spare some thoughts and prayers for Dak Prescott trying to find a flat landing spot to set his feet in the pocket. Of course, this presumes the Jets find some passion out of a very talented but underperforming defense to help support QB Justin Fields and get New York a win.

Dallas can still generate points. To be determined is whether the ball-control option will be on the table considering the Cowboys are starting a JV offensive line.

It's another "Remember Me?" storyline for defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus facing Fields, with whom he was paired in Chicago before the Bears decided on a reset to select Caleb Williams. Fields is all too familiar with watching Eberflus' defense struggle to contain mobile quarterbacks. A massive game from Fields wouldn't be a shocker.

If you are into tasty parlays, consider the Cowboys have surrendered an average of 1.4 touchdowns to wide receivers per game since the start of last season. Jets WR Garrett Wilson has a total of just 62.5 and his anytime TD total can be nudged into value range by pairing it with his yardage total. You can do the same with Jets RB Breece Hall, but pair his yardage total with his receptions total against the Cowboys drop-zone secondary.

Pick: Jets +1.5 over Cowboys (-110)

Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET

This is the week the Bengals' front office calls the Falcons and asks about Kirk Cousins. Or offers Tom Brady an ownership stake to play 10 games. We'll take Boomer Esiason at this point.

Jake Browning is under constant pressure and has been vending turnovers for two weeks since Joe Burrow (toe) had to step aside for three months. He'll be on his back a lot Sunday.

We're not saying this is all on Browning, but X marks the spot and you should capitalize in any way possible.

Here are a couple of ways that make reasonable sense: Lions defensive touchdown (+550), Browning under 9.5 rushing yards (-112 DraftKings), Browning interception (over 0.5, -160).

Lions by a mile.

Pick: Lions -10.5 over Bengals (-110)