October 3rd Best Sports Betting Picks for Thursday Night Football, College Football, MLB Playoffs

Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 5 of the NFL season, two college football games and Game 3 of the Wild Card Series between the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers set up as a nice appetizer for the weekend ahead.

Let’s dive into the most appealing picks for Thursday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Heading into this game, the Buccaneers have a massive weakness that the Falcons should be able to exploit.

What is it? Their ineffectiveness against running backs. 

The Buccaneers are allowing 5.09 yards per carry and 6.5 receptions per game to players at the position. 

The Falcons have a two-headed backfield in Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson that should be able to take advantage.

Allgeier has 27 carries for 166 yards (6.1 yards per carry). Robinson has 55 carries for 224 yards (4.1 yards per carry) and 15 receptions for 135 yards. 

The Falcons’ defense is allowing less than a touchdown pass and 200 yards per game.

Look for their backfield and rushing attack to lead the way.

Best Bet: Falcons -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Texas State vs. Troy

Texas State enters this game as a 13-point road favorite, but here, I’m going to take the under at 57 points. 

Both teams allow 207.5 passing yards or less per game, while Texas State allows 128.8 rushing yards compared to Troy’s 175.2 per outing. 

Troy quarterback Matthew Caldwell has completed 25 of 40 passes this season for 2659 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He’s averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt. They have a good running back in Damien Taylor, as he averages 5.9 yards per carry, but the Texas State defense will worry more so about him than the passing game.

Texas State quarterback Jordan McCloud transferred from James Madison. This season, he’s completing 69.3% of his passes for 1,141 yards, 12 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He had 326 yards and three touchdowns in their Week 4 loss against Sam Houston.

I think Texas State will score points, but I’m not too confident in how many Troy will. They scored nine points in their last game against Louisiana-Monroe. 

Best Bet: Under 57 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers

I’m going to ride with the underdog Mets. 

In Game 2, they blew the lead, allowing three runs in the eighth inning. On Thursday, Jose Quintana is on the mound, and he has been dominant lately. Since Aug. 25 (six starts), Quintana has allowed just three total runs and zero home runs. 

In the playoffs, Quintana is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 15 strikeouts through 18 2/3 innings. 

The Mets have their work cut out for them as they’ll have to handle one of the best bullpens in the league. I’m banking on the Mets’ offense doing enough while Quintana goes about six innings and holds the Brewers to a couple runs at most. 

Brewers starter Tobias Myers has been solid this season with a 3.00 ERA.

Best Bet: Mets ML (+104) at FanDuel Sportsbook