Sunday Scaries: After going 4-0 last week, here are my Week 3 bets you should avoid

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: After going 4-0 last week, here are my Week 3 bets you should avoid
Image: Eric Barrow (Shutterstock)

These Sundays are not scaring me yet.

Last week, I didn’t just have a winning week on bets I told you not to touch... to my surprise, I went 4-0.

Jacksonville (+8) kept it close against Tennessee. Arizona (-6.5) beat the Washington Football Team by 15. The Giants (+5.5) lost the game and Saquon Barkley but still managed to cover against the worst 2-0 team in football. And with under two minutes left in the game, Leonard Fournette broke off a 46-yard run to give Tampa (-8.5) the double-digit win and cover.

I know the Sunday Scaries are supposed to be games you should avoid betting, but I’ll be damned if I spend this much time writing about NFL gambling only to not share my own predictions at the end of the slideshow.

I’m 5-2 on the season betting the most atrocious games of the week. I’m feeling good about Week 3, but there are still a few games that freak me the fuck out.

Here they are in a particular order.

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2 / 7

Jets @ Colts (-11.5)

Jets @ Colts (-11.5)

Jets head coach Adam Gase and Colts head coach Frank Reich
Jets head coach Adam Gase and Colts head coach Frank Reich
Image: (Getty Images)

Eleven-and-a-half points. Yikes.

You and I know Adam Gase’s Jets are bad, perhaps early contenders for the No. 1 pick in 2021. But never underestimate the inconsistency of a Philip Rivers-led team. After losing their Week 1 matchup to the Jaguars, Frank Reich’s Colts took apart the Vikings’ lead by one of the NFL’s highest paid QBs (and the 2020 version of Ivan Drago).

Gif:

But Kirk Cousins won’t be the issue for the Colts this week, who face a depleted Jets roster. New York won’t have RB Le’Veon Bell in the backfield for the second week in a row as he nurses a hamstring injury, and two starting receivers are out for today’s game. Indy to win is a pick that scares no one. But, do you want to lay your cash on the 1-1 Colts to cover the largest spread of the NFL season so far?

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3 / 7

Bears @ Falcons (-3)

Bears @ Falcons (-3)

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Bears QB Mitch Trubisky and Falcons QB Matt Ryan
Image: (Getty Images)

Have you ever been so unsure of a choice that you just point and pray you’ve made the right decision? If you bet this game, that’s how you’ll feel.

How can you trust either one of these teams? The Bears (barely) beat … the Lions and Giants. Chicago, with Mitch Trubisky under center, may be undefeated, but they don’t look like a 2-0 team.

On the other side of the ball, we have the Falcons. They stink. Atlanta and QB Matt Ryan started their game up 20-0 against the Cowboys, then blew a 29-10 lead at halftime. And we know what happened, a 40-39 loss. I actually bet that game last week… should’ve stuck with the Week 2 scaries picks.

Anyway, do you really know who has an edge in this one? And if you live outside Chicago or Atlanta, do you really care? Stay away.

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4 / 7

Bengals @ Eagles (-4.5)

Bengals @ Eagles (-4.5)

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Bengals QB Joe Burrow and Eagles QB Carson Wentz.
Image: (Getty Images)

This is a very ugly game on paper and it probably will be ugly on the field, too. The Eagles are 0-2 for the season and 0-2 against the spread. They’ve lost to Washington and the Rams. Can it get any worse for the preseason divisional favorites? Maybe. But Cincinnati is also 0-2 with a rebuilding roster and a rookie quarterback in Joe Burrow. Burrow looks good, but his play alone has not been enough to take Cincinnati to a 2-0 record.

This could be a defining week for Philly and QB Carson Wentz, who looks lost. Can the Eagles salvage their season with a win against a weak team? Or will they fall into the 0-3 black hole.

I wouldn’t be confident in either pick here.

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5 / 7

Texans @ Steelers (-4)

Texans @ Steelers (-4)

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Texans head coach Bill O’Brien and Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin.
Image: (Getty Images)

This is a tough game to gauge. It should be a fun watch, but I’d be wary of betting it. Pittsburgh does not look as good as their undefeated record and Bill O’Brien’s Texans don’t feel like an 0-2 team.

Mike Tomlin’s and his Steelers almost gave their game away to the injury-riddled Broncos last week. And the Texans have faced arguably the two best teams in the league so far — Kansas City and Baltimore. We’ll get a better sense of who these teams really are next month. For now, don’t lock this one in.

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6 / 7

If you just can’t resist...

If you just can’t resist...

I don’t like these games and I will probably not have another undefeated week. But if you really can’t resist betting, here’s who I like:

  • The Jets suck. Colts to cover and then some.
  • I just don’t see the Falcons going 0-3. Forget last week. Atlanta is simply a better team than the Bears. Take the Dirty Birds to cover.
  • I like the Bengals to cover. They’ve been within a touchdown margin in their first two games. Expect another close one here. I wouldn’t be surprised by a Bengals upset.
  • Texans get their first win this week in a fanless Heinz Field.
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7 / 7