Sunday Scaries: The Week 15 bets to avoid

Beware of the Jaguars. Not to win their second game of the season, obviously. But to cover uncomfortably large spreads.

Jacksonville is 6-7 against the spread this year and just re-named Gardner Minshew their starting QB. Baltimore’s ATS record is a bit better at 7-5-1 and the Ravens were beyond lucky to cover against the Browns. Can Lamar Jackson run the score up enough to win by 13 or more? The Jags have covered two out of their last three. Pick carefully, or just avoid the bet.

You thought the Jets’ spread (+15) was scary last week? Lord. This week, it’s closing in on 20 points.

I mean, you shouldn’t be surprised. The Jets are still winless and a leader in our powerless rankings. But, believe it or not, New York has already played in a game with a larger spread. That’s right, in week 8 they were 19.5 dogs to the Chiefs… who won comfortably.

Still, a double digit number this high is one to stay away from even if you like fading the Jets. You could like Sam Darnold or Aaron Donald. I don’t care, It’s irrelevant. Stay away.

Don’t be that person who watches one game, promptly makes up their mind, and ends up irrationally siding with one team or player till kingdom come. I mean, do you want to be a sports blogger?

Jalen Hurts will get the start again for Philly. That’s great. He’s great. I wish him well. I’m rooting for him. Blah blah blah. But I’m not confident taking the 4-8-1 Eagles against a team that just smacked last week’s NFC East division leader. Before you lock Philly in and climb onto the Hurts bandwagon before it overflows, would you really be surprised if the Eagles went back to looking like complete garbage? No.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals currently hold the 7th seed in the NFC playoff picture. At 7-6 they’re gonna need a game, likely two, to get into the dance. Granted, it is a must win for both teams. So you’ll watch this game but stay away from the spread.

I may be 50-50 betting awful games but I’ve been spot on about the Browns — never bet on Cleveland. Baker Mayfield and company gave us another hilarious bad beat on Monday against the Ravens. Can they move the ball forward against an opponent this time?

Actually, it may be harder than Browns fans think. New York’s D has looked great at times this season. Blake Martinez ranks fourth in the league in tackles and Big Blue’s front four has been gelling. The offense? Not so much.

Giants OC, Jason Garrett will not coach today because he caught COVID. Instead, Freddie Kitchens will call plays for the offense in his revenge game. The backup OC will play with backup QB Colt McCoy, another former Brown. Maybe he’ll pull off another upset win? Or maybe you should just avoid betting this Sunday night spread altogether.

Neither team deserves your lock.

So you made it to the end of the show and still want to hear my takes on week 15’s ugliest spreads? Be warned I went 1-3 last week, but I still have a 50 percent winning record (27-27) through 14 weeks.

Here’s who you should take if you can’t resist.

• The Jaguars have been good to me when I take them in this part of the slideshow. Jacksonville, do your thing. Lose another game. But, please, keep it close.
• I whiffed on the Jets last week against the Seahawks. NY got beat 40-3. I don’t see how it gets any better today. Take the Rams to cover a massive spread.
• I know it may seem like I doubt Hurts, but I worry about the spread more. If I had to, I’d bet a number here. Take the Eagles to keep within a touchdown.
• The Giants have the second best cover percentage in the NFL at 61.5. The deck seems stacked against NY with all the offensive questions. Still, I’m not going to bet on Cleveland. Take the points here.