Thursday Night Football Betting Picks & Prop Bets for New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

The last time Aaron Rodgers charged out of the tunnel onto the turf at MetLife Stadium for a primetime home opener, joy and optimism crashed to the ground as the perceived savior of the Jets returned to the locker room with a ruptured Achilles. 

Rodgers recovered, missing the final 16 regular-season games last season in the process, and has New York at 1-1 entering the 2024 home opener on Thursday night against the New England Patriots. 

New England is under new management. Bill Belichick had his belongings packed by the Krafts, who turned the keys of the franchise over to Belichick player pupil and coaching understudy Jerod Mayo. 

Bland would aptly describe the brand of football New England played in the first two weeks, a flavorless type of conservative offense built around ball control and all but ignoring the existence of outside receivers. This is a big reason the line went from Jets -6.5 to -6 at most books and the sagging total fell from 39 points to 38.

If the Patriots want to win with defense, be our guest. But going predictably one-dimensional against the Jets is a recipe for a boot where it doesn’t belong. 

Here’s the one thing that still matters for Rodgers in the stress and success departments on Thursday: his offensive line. 

It’s not a strength even if improved over the front five that crumbled in 2023. 

Under 38 total points (-110 at BetMGM)

The total opened one point higher at BetMGM and stayed at 39 on FanDuel, so choose your betting locations wisely with a Week 3 slate dominated by low totals (Chargers-Steelers is 35.5, Packers-Titans is 37.5, for example).

The Patriots won on this field in Week 3 last year, 15-10, but that was a different cast of characters entirely. It’s not entirely meaningful, nor is the regular-season finale won by the Jets, 17-3. They scored 13 total points in the previous game (Nov. 20, 2022), a 10-3 New England win. 

We know the Patriots are averaging 18 points but can’t fathom New England over 13 or 15 on Thursday. To count the reasons, note New England has 75 rushing attempts and 30 pass completions in two games. There are no playmakers to draw CB Sauce Gardner’s attention outside, and head coach Robert Saleh might be inclined to use Gardner in a bracket double coverage assignment on TE Hunter Henry. Taking away strengths and identifying trends are Saleh’s strong suit. We wouldn’t be all that shocked if he lined up in the equivalent of Madden video game goal-line defense, daring the Patriots to let Jacob Brissett drop back. That’s doubly true if Patriots C David Andrews (hip) doesn’t play. 

Aaron Rodgers over 20.5 pass completions (-102 at FanDuel)

Part of the Patriots’ conservative approach is to avoid risk, and Mayo builds the game plan around his defense. With six sacks this season and no interceptions, the question is whether New England can make opponents pay for mistakes. 

Rodgers is wise to the stellar run defense at the core of the Patriots’ success and thrives with short, quick passes on horizontal routes that eventually loosen a defense up enough for a deep shot. But if New England wants to play the drop coverage to make NY work the field four yards at a time, Rodgers has aced this exam in patience before.

Breece Hall over 31.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)

Hall is leading the Jets with 12 receptions, and other books are taking heavy action on Hall -30.5 yards, which BetMGM lists at -125 as the fourth most-bet performance prop on TNF. 

He stands as the most likely beneficiary of a bend-don’t-break defensive approach from New England, and Rodgers targeted him 14 times in the first two games. Only WR Garrett Wilson (17) has been targeted more. Hall has games of 39 receiving yards (at San Francisco) and 52 (at Tennessee) this season.