World Series Game 1 Predictions: Best Bets, Props, and Odds for Dodgers vs. Blue Jays

It’s here! The World Series starts tonight and hey, there’s some history on the side of the Blue Jays.

We’ve had four instances where one team comes in off a sweep, and the other off a seven game series. The team off the seven gamer has won the Series all four times.

I would take the Jays +215 if forced to wager on the series, not because of that small sample size quirk but just because MLB is tough to predict when it's a short series between two quality teams.

But that’s just a lean, not a pick! Here are my actual plays for tonight!

Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100 Caesars)

Toronto’s super power is their ability to not strike out. They led MLB with a 17.8% K% on the season. That number goes up to 18.6% vs. just lefties and 19.8% vs. lefties in the regular season after August 1st.

On the other hand, that number also goes down to 14.8% when we only look at the postseason. But of course most of those PA’s were against Mariners starters, and other than Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo pre-injury, they were not a huge K rotation.

So let me stipulate that we can play with this number to tell whatever story we want. The bottom line is that they are one of the toughest teams in MLB to whiff.

I like this Over because the Jays ability to make contact has kept it on the low side given their opponent. Snell has started three times in the playoffs and looked fantastic in each outing.

In 21 total innings he has allowed just 2 earned runs, 6 hits and 5 walks. Most importantly for our wager, hes 28 strikeouts, with either 9 or 10 in each outing.

Further, he has a 38.9% K%. He missed most of the regular season, and had “only” a 28.3% K%, low for him but still 85th percentile in MLB. And his Whiff% was a super elite 35.6%, good for 96th percentile.

Even against the Jays, he should get to the Over if he can hang in for 6 innings (more on that in a sec). And the good news there is the Dodgers do not yank their starters early as is the trend in MLB playoffs for the mere mortal teams.

Blake Snell Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-120 BetMGM)

In for a dime, in for a dollar I guess.

Well kind of, there’s a world where Snell gets through 6 innings but does not hit the strikeout over. That is a world where the Jays shorten the PA’s with a lot of contact. But I think Snell gets to both.

Again, the Dodgers have not treated their pitchers with anything resembling kid gloves. Snell has gone respectively 91, 99 and 103 pitches in his playoff outings. And as mentioned above, he’s been fantastic.

He also made it at least 6 innings in 5 of his last 7 regular season starts as he ramped up for the playoffs.

Let’s ride.