Sunday Scaries: The Week 10 bets to avoid

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This week on the Sunday Scaries, we’ve got the greatest hits featuring: the NFC East, the Jacksonville Jaguars and a deceptively good Chargers team? We’ll also cover an old NFL rivalry that is now dead.

There are plenty of things that should scare you about the NFL in 2020. Be it awful teams that continue to play in primetime or the ever-present threat of coronavirus (no, it’s not over) or Joe Burrow’s fear of Voldemort.

There are also some week 10 spreads that should scare you.

Here are today’s bets to avoid.

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Eagles at Giants (+4)

Eagles at Giants (+4)

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If there is ever a game to avoid watching and betting, it’s the NFC East matchup of the week. The division-leading Eagles (3-4-1) travel up I-95 today to face Daniel Jones and the Giants (2-7). And yes, math wizards, should the Giants win they would tie the Eagles at three wins a piece. But in that scenario, the Eagles would still have a better record based on their tie and number of losses. Still, two teams atop the NFC East with 3 wins is something we can call root for in these trying times. The Giants are the sole team in the wretched division who has not had a bye. They’ll get one next week.

Big Blue is surprisingly one of the best bets against the spread when they are on the road. They are the only team in the league that’s undefeated away ATS (5-0). Too bad this game is in the Meadowlands where they’re 1-3 ATS and 1-3 straight up. The Eagles, on the other side of the ball, fly in off a bye. But with Carson Wentz playing poorly through 9 weeks, what makes you think he and the Eagles offense can turn it around by the end of the season? And why would you ever place a bet on the Giants? I’d stay away from this shitshow.

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Jaguars at Packers (-13.5)

Jaguars at Packers (-13.5)

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: The Week 10 bets to avoid
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As long as the Jaguars keep losing (and covering when I pick against them) they’ll be featured on the Sunday Scaries. The Jags backup QB, Jake Luton, who will start today, spoiled a Texan cover late in the fourth quarter last week. With a huge 13.5 point spread, could Luton and the Jags cover again?

Vegas doesn’t think so. As of now, 83 percent of bettors are putting their money on the Packers -13.5. It makes sense. A 6-2 team with an MVP candidate in Aaron Rodgers and an offense that ranks third in the league in points per game against a dogshit opponent that hasn’t won since week one. So take ALL the points. Right? Well, maybe. These games with large point spreads scare me. Green Bay to win outright, sure. But Jacksonville could always score garbage time points to keep it close like they did last week. I’d stay away.

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Chargers at Dolphins (-1.5)

Chargers at Dolphins (-1.5)

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: The Week 10 bets to avoid
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We got what we wanted — a matchup between 2020 first-round QB’s Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. But it wasn’t supposed to play out this way.

This game was supposed to happen in week 7 but it was moved when the NFL rescheduled multiple games due to COVID outbreaks. Week 7 turned into a bye for the Dolphins, giving coach Brian Flores the opportunity to name Tua the starter. He did, and the Dolphins have won two straight with their young QB. In LA, the Chargers sit at 2-6 but don’t let that record deceive you. All six losses have been from one-score games. And in back to back weeks, the Chargers have lost last second heartbreakers.

1.5 is an appetizing spread no matter who you pick — you can easily make the case for either team. That doesn’t make it a great bet to lock in.

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Ravens at Patriots (+7)

Ravens at Patriots (+7)

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: The Week 10 bets to avoid
Graphic: (Getty Images)

This is not the AFC rivalry you’re used to seeing. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens come into Foxborough as touchdown favorites against a Pats team that’s struggled since their COVID outbreak in early October. New England snuck one out against the Jets with help from the leg of Nick Folk. Cam Newton and co. need to do more this week to beat a Baltimore defense that gives up the fewest points per game in the NFL.

The Ravens seem like an easy pick here, but I have some Sunday superstitions. This may be just me, but there’s something about Sunday night football that seems to favor the underdog. Plus, I don’t like the number here. If you get a spread below seven, even -6.5, take the Ravens and don’t think twice.

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If you can’t resist…

If you can’t resist…

The hot streak is over. After a few winning weeks, I finally went 1-3 last Sunday. Houston gave up their comfortable cover with a minute and a half left. The Steelers won but Ben got hurt and Garrett Gilbert played well enough for the ‘Boys to only lose by 5. And I was wrong on the Dolphins, they looked good in a win over Arizona.

If you went with my picks, I did tell you to stay away! And I’ll do the same this week, even though I am 18-16 on the season betting the worst spreads of the week.

Here’s who I like today.

  • You may have been watching the final presidential debate on October 22, but that Thursday night the Giants barely lost to Philly after being up most of the game. Today, I like Big Blue to beat the Eagles and even the season series.
  • This is the largest spread of the week. If you have to bet this game, take the Packers and pray for a blowout.
  • I picked against Miami last week. I won’t make the same mistake twice. This will be another close one. But somehow, someway, the Chargers will find another way to lose. Dolphins to win and cover in a close one.
  • This week Lamar Jackson called Cam the “O.G Superman.” Fitting, because it’s always good to compliment your elders before taking their place. Pick the new Superman and the Ravens tonight.
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