Sabermetrix Are For Kids: Introducing Our Little League World Series Power Ranking And Prediction Engine

We're a few days into the Little League World Series, which means it's time to unveil our system for evaluating the teams: DRURY, or Determination of Robustness of Undoubtedly Rambunctious Youths. It takes box score statistics from every game, converts them into a composite runs scored and allowed per game (BR/18O and BRA/18O, respectively), and then adjusts those figures for strength of schedule. The final figures are the teams' adjusted Pythagorean winning percentages; they're scaled so that the best team has a DRURY of 1. Without further ado, here's the first batch of rankings, based on games prior to today:

Sabermetrix Are For Kids: Introducing Our Little League World Series Power Ranking And Prediction EngineS

And here are the predictions for today's matchups, based on expected winning percentages from the above run totals.

Caribbean over Midwest, 51.5% (Actual: Caribbean 5, Midwest 0)
Asia-Pacific over Canada, 91.7% (Actual: Canada 5, Asia-Pacific 3)
Great Lakes over Southeast, 81.1%
Japan over Middle East and Africa, 91.0%
Mid-Atlantic over Southwest, 55.8%

With a sample size of only two games per team, DRURY's predictions won't be very accurate, but it will get better as the week progresses. Stay tuned for tomorrow's update.

Related: A Sabermetric Look At The Little League World Series [The Awl]