Which NFL Pundits Have Made The Worst Predictions So Far This Year? Grading ESPN, CBS, And Yahoo

Republished with permission from PunditTracker.com.

Now that we are 10 weeks into the NFL season, we figured it would be a good time to take a look at how the pundits are faring. We have compiled all the weekly picks made by the ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS Sports analysts.

Here is how they rank based on our $1 Yield metric, which calibrates predictions for boldness by measuring the average payout (using Vegas odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit's selections. (Note: We grade the CBS group based on their straight-up picks, not those against the spread).

PunditHit Rate$1 Yield
Seth Wickersham (ESPN)71%$1.19
Chris Mortensen (ESPN)70%$1.18
Mike Silver (Yahoo)67%$1.11
Jason Cole (Yahoo)66%$1.08
Jason Cole (Yahoo)66%$1.08
Josh Katzowitz (CBS)66%$1.07
Will Brinson (CBS)62%$1.05
Pete Prisco (CBS)64%$1.04
Clark Judge (CBS)65%$1.03
Mike Freeman (CBS)63%$1.03
Merril Hoge (ESPN)63%$1.02
Jason La Canfora (CBS)62%$1.01
Mike Golic (ESPN)62%$1.01
Ron Jaworski (ESPN)63%$0.99
Mark Schlereth (ESPN)62%$0.98
Mike Ditka (ESPN)60%$0.98
Cris Carter (ESPN)62%$0.97
Prediction Machine (CBS)62%$0.95
Adam Schefter (ESPN)61%$0.95
Ryan Wilson (CBS)60%$0.95
Accuscore (ESPN)62%$0.94
Dave Richard (CBS)60%$0.94
Keyshawn Johnson (ESPN)59%$0.94
Les Carpenter (Yahoo)57%$0.91
Tom Jackson (ESPN)58%$0.90
Eric Allen (ESPN)57%$0.89

As a group, the pundits have been decidedly average this year, generating a collective yield of $1. Seth Wickersham of ESPN ($1.19) has turned in the best performance so far; his best picks include Redskins over the Saints in Week 1 and the Colts over the Packers in Week 5. Chris Mortensen ($1.18) has also been a standout, while his ESPN colleagues Tom Jackson ($0.90) and Eric Allen ($0.89) have struggled. This has been a year of the underdog, as betting exclusively on the favorites would have netted just a $0.91 yield.

We are pleased to announce that we have now added 15 of these NFL pundits to PunditTracker.com, namely those who also made predictions in 2011. Wickersham and Mike Silver (Yahoo) top the cumulative rankings:

Pundit20112012Cumulative
Seth Wickersham (ESPN)$1.04$1.19$1.10
Mike Silver (Yahoo)$1.08$1.11$1.09
Mike Freeman (CBS)$1.05$1.03$1.04
Chris Mortensen (ESPN)$0.95$1.18$1.03
Clark Judge (CBS)$1.01$1.03$1.02
Les Carpenter (Yahoo)$1.06$0.91$1.01
Jason Cole (Yahoo)$0.96$1.08$1.00
Mark Schlereth (ESPN)$0.99$0.98$0.99
Merril Hoge(ESPN)$0.98$1.02$0.99
Mike Silver (Yahoo)$1.08$1.11$1.09
Pete Prisco (CBS)$0.96$1.04$0.99
Will Brinson (CBS)$0.96$1.05$0.99
Dave Richard (CBS)$1.00$0.94$0.98
Mike Golic (ESPN)$0.96$1.01$0.98
Ron Jaworski (ESPN)$0.97$0.99$0.98
Eric Allen (ESPN)$0.99$0.89$0.96
Adam Schefter (ESPN)$0.94$0.85$0.95
Average$0.99$1.03$1.01

PunditTracker's mission is to bring accountability to the prediction industry by cataloging and scoring the predictions of pundits.