The World Cup Golden Boot award, given to the tournament’s top goal scorer, is one of the most prestigious individual honors a player can earn. The 2026 tournament boasts some of the best goal scorers of all time, so the competition is sure to be a spectacular one.
We are going to give you the latest Golden Boot odds, delve into the favorites, and give you some of our betting picks.
Before we dive into our thoughts about the race for the World Cup Golden Boot, let’s lay out the odds for the award from FanDuel, a top site for World Cup Golden Boot betting.
| Player | Golden Boot Odds | Player | Golden Boot Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe (France) | +650 | Harry Kane (England) | +750 |
| Erling Haaland (Norway) | +1400 | Lionel Messi (Argentina) | +1600 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) | +1600 | Lamine Yamal (Spain) | +2000 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) | +2200 | Raphinha (Brazil) | +3000 |
| Ousmane Dembele (France) | +3000 | Julian Alvarez (Argentina) | +3500 |
| Lautaro Martinez (Argentina) | +3500 | Kai Havertz (Germany) | +3500 |
| Vinicius Junior (Brazil) | +3500 | Florian Wirtz (Germany) | +4000 |
| Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) | +4000 | Igor Thiago | +4000 |
| Michael Olise (France) | +4500 | Luis Diaz | +4500 |
| Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) | +5000 | Jamal Musiala (Germany) | +5000 |
| Nick Woltemade (Germany) | +5000 | Ollie Watkins (England) | +5000 |
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Why Mbappe could win: Mbappe leads the frontline of France, one of the tournament favorites. So a deep run is likely, giving the Real Madrid star lots of chances to find the back of the net. Mbappe is a proven goalscorer at the World Cup, having won the Golden Boot in 2022 with 7 goals and scoring 6 in 2018. Mbappe also comes into the tournament in top form, leading both La Liga and the Champions League in goals.
Why Mbappe might not win: Mbappe is the odds-on favorite for a reason. But there are still a few holes in his candidacy. France has the most firepower of any World Cup team, with the likes of Michael Olise, Désiré Doué, and Ousmane Dembélé. While Mbappe is the leading man, his star teammates will take goal-scoring opportunities away from him. Mbappe is also battling history, as no player has won the Golden Boot twice.
Why Kane could win: England have a lot of attacking talent, but Kane is the man for Thomas Tuchel’s side. He had 8 goals in qualifying, and no other England player had more than 3. If healthy, Kane will play as many minutes as possible. Like Mbappe, he’s already won this award, doing so with 6 goals in 2018. And like Mbappe, he’s been red-hot for his club. Kane won the Golden Shoe for Europe after scoring 61 goals for Bayern Munich.
Why Kane might not win: While Kane has been healthy since his move to the Bundesliga, he does have a lengthy injury history. He’s 32 years old and carried a heavy workload for Bayern Munich, which made deep runs in the domestic cup and Champions League. As we mentioned for Mbappe, Kane will also need to be the first repeat Golden Boot winner.
Why Haaland could win: No one scores for their country like Haaland, who topped his qualifying region with a whopping 16 goals, 8 ahead of second-place Kane. While Norway has other talented forward options, the team’s attack is built around the Man City star. Haaland’s physicality and movement skills will also be a nightmare for the more inexperienced defenses at the World Cup. He earned his third Premier League Golden Boot with 27 goals, so he’s coming to North America in impressive form.
Why Haaland might not win: It’s easy to understand why Haaland’s odds trail those of Mbappe and Kane, despite them being arguably the three best goalscorers in football. Norway is a popular pick to make a solid run into the latter stages of the World Cup, but they will likely be eliminated before England and France. Haaland will have to smash the group stage to have a chance.
Why Messi could win: He’s Lionel Messi. He does the seemingly impossible regularly. Messi is still the key cog in Argentina’s attack and topped the team in qualifying goals. He’s also been a consistent goal threat for Inter Miami, with 12 goals. It’s obvious, but it’s worth repeating. Few players perform on the big stage as well as Messi, and while he’s never won this award, he came close in 2022.
Why Messi might not win: While Messi is thoroughly beating Father Time, you can’t ignore that he’ll turn 39 during the tournament. Even if his goal-scoring abilities haven’t diminished significantly, Messi could be protected by Argentina. If the team’s in a comfortable spot in the group stage, they could rest Messi whenever possible to save him for the knockout round. This is even more likely with the star dealing with a minor hamstring issue.
Why Oyarzabal could win: With Lamine Yamal dealing with a hamstring injury, Oyarzabal has taken his spot in the top 5. The Real Sociedad star is locked in as Spain’s starting forward. So while he might not be as talented as other favorites, he could get more opportunities to score. Spain has a host of creative wingers and midfielders to feed him, and the team’s floor is likely a semi-final berth.
Why Oyarzabal might not win: Oyarzabal just doesn’t have the elite goal-scoring pedigree of the Haalands and Kanes of the world. He scored an impressive 15 La Liga goals, and his 24 goals in 52 appearances for Spain are very solid. But with an expanded format, it could take 8 or 9 goals to win this award. While the likes of Kane and Mbappe don’t absolutely need a run in the final stages of the World Cup to win the Golden Boot, Oyarzabal’s candidacy is dependent on Spain living up to expectations.
We’ve already laid out Kane’s case, and in our opinion, it’s easily the most convincing. Kane is the focal point for England, and Tuchel’s squad selection, while controversial, has reinforced that. Tuchel opted against bringing the likes of Cole Palmer and Phil Foden in order to form a more balanced lineup around Kane. The striker likes to roam deep and needs players willing to run beyond him. England will live and die on Kane’s success.
Kane is also coming off a career year, so his confidence will be at an all-time high. Strengthening the England captain’s argument is the fact that he’s the unquestioned penalty taker for his team. We also see a far more advantageous group stage for Kane compared to Mbappe. England could rack up the goals against Panama and Ghana.
If we’re looking beyond the major favorites for the Golden Boot for potential under-the-radar candidates, Brazil’s Raphinha stands out. While this season hasn’t been as spectacular as the 2024 campaign that earned him a top-five placing in Ballon d’Or voting, Raphinha is still a first-class goalscorer. Despite dealing with injuries, he has 21 goals in 33 appearances for Barcelona.
Brazil is also capable of a deep run in the World Cup, so Raphinha could have plenty of chances to bolster his goal tally. Helping Raphinha’s case is the fact that Brazil opted not to bring João Pedro to the World Cup, and Estêvão will miss the tournament due to injury. With ongoing concerns about Neymar’s fitness and Vinícius Jr. often failing to play up to his Real Madrid standards for Brazil, Raphinha could be the man to step up.
The Golden Boot winner will almost always come from the leading contenders. But if you want a long-shot candidate, we like Colombia’s Díaz. Of course, any chance of Díaz winning the Golden Boot would likely require Colombia to make it to the semi-finals. But the South American side is one of the teams capable of pulling off a shock run. And if it does, it would be off the back of Díaz, easily the team’s top player.
Colombia also has a relatively easy group, with only Portugal as competition. Díaz could feast in games against DR Congo and Uzbekistan. The Bayern Munich star has proven he’s capable of catching fire at the right time, too. He tied for the most goals at the Copa América in 2021 and scored 7 goals in Colombia’s qualifying campaign for the 2026 World Cup. Díaz has also taken his game to a new level since joining Bayern in 2025, with 26 goals in 51 appearances.
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