With a new expanded 48-country format for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, itās even harder to predict which team will be lifting the iconic trophy on July 1. Can Spain or France live up to their statuses as favorites? Is it finally coming home for England? Can Argentina retain its crown?
Well, weāre going to try to answer the question every soccer fan is thinking about this summer. Weāll provide the latest World Cup winner odds, evaluate the favorites, and make our betting picks.
As we said, the usual European and South American juggernauts stand atop the World Cup winner odds. Spain and France have both held the top spot at various points in the lead-up to the tournament, with the Euro 2024 champs earning a slight edge recently. Here are the odds for all 48 teams competing in North America by FanDuel, a top site for World Cup winner betting.
| Team | Odds | Team | Odds | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +450 | France | +470 | England | +600 |
| Brazil | +800 | Argentina | +900 | Portugal | +1000 |
| Germany | +1300 | Netherlands | +1800 | Belgium | +2200 |
| Norway | +3000 | Colombia | +4500 | Morocco | +5500 |
| Japan | +5500 | USA | +6000 | Uruguay | +6500 |
| Switzerland | +6500 | Croatia | +7500 | Mexico | +7000 |
| TĆ¼rkiye | +8000 | AustriaEcuador | +10000 | Austria | +12500 |
| Sweden | +15000 | Senegal | +15000 | Ivory Coast | +20000 |
| Canada | +22500 | Paraguay | +22500 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | +25000 |
| Algeria | +25000 | Ghana | +30000 | Egypt | +30000 |
| South Korea | +40000 | Scotland | +50000 | Iran | +60000 |
| Czechia | +60000 | Tunisia | +100000 | Australia | +250000 |
| DR Congo | +250000 | Saudi Arabia | +250000 | New Zealand | +250000 |
| Qatar | +250000 | Cape Verde | +250000 | Curacao | +250000 |
| Haiti | +250000 | Iraq | +250000 | Jordan | +250000 |
| Panama | +250000 | Uzbekistan | +250000 | South Africa | +250000 |
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Why Spain could win: Lamine Yamal is a transcendent talent who proved do it on the biggest stage at Euro 2024. His speed and directness give a new dimension to the teamās passing-heavy style. Moreover, Spain returns the core of its team from its tournament win 2 years ago, and boasts other top players like Rodri, Pedri, and Dani Almo. Spain also has a great blend of experience and youth, with youngsters like Pau CubarsĆ breathing new life into the defense.
Why Spain might not win: Spain is the favorite for a reason, with few weaknesses. But the health of Yamal, whoās working back from a hamstring injury, is a concern. He should be fit toward the start of the tournament, but he needs to be at 100% for Spain to live up to expectations. Itās also a warning that the 18-year-old is carrying a huge workload at a young age. While Mikel Oyarzabal is an established striker, heās not a traditional No. 9, and his lack of pace is a weakness.
Why France could win: No team at the World Cup knows what it takes to fight through the tournament like France. Didier Deschampsā side won the World Cup in 2018 and came agonisingly close in 2022. They have maybe the tournamentās best player in Kylian Mbappe, who is backed up by Ballon dāOr winner Ousmane DembĆ©lĆ© and Bundesliga player of the year Michael Olise. They also have talent all over the pitch and unrivaled depth, giving them answers to any question.
Why France might not win: The French team are no strangers to dressing room drama. Balancing the egos of so many top players is a difficult task, though Deschamps has proven more than capable in the past. If France also starts slow, it could be vulnerable to a strong group that also has Norway and Senegal, putting them on a trickier knockout stage path.
Why England could win: England has been among the most consistent tournament teams of the last decade. Two Euro final appearances, alongside semi-final and quarter-final berths in the previous two World Cups, have shown that England can finally live up to expectations. Now, under Thomas Tuchel, they have an elite tactician who can lead the team to victory. Harry Kane is one of the most in-form players in world football, and while some of Englandās young talent hasnāt developed as quickly as expected, they still possess a well-rounded and deep squad.
Why England might not win: Kane is Englandās all-time goal scorer, and few other players on the team have his pedigree. If Kane is hurt ā and he has a notable injury history ā who is scaring teams? England looked listless without him in a shock 1-0 friendly defeat to Japan. Jude Bellingham is the biggest star besides Kane, but he has struggled to reach the spectacular heights of his debut season at Real Madrid. England also donāt have the elite defenders that other favorites boast, especially at center back.
Credit: Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports
Why Brazil could win: Brazil has the most accomplished manager at the tournament in Carlo Ancelotti. The winner of a record five Champions Leagues, Ancelotti has the experience to end Brazilās 24-year wait for another World Cup title. Brazil has a favorable group, with Morocco, Scotland, and Haiti. While Ancelotti is still trying to find his balance in Brazilās attack, he has legitimate game-changers in VinĆcius Jr and Raphinha. Brazil also has great players at the other end of the pitch, namely goalkeeper Alisson and center back Gabriel.
Why Brazil might not win: Brazil simply donāt have the game-changing talent it typically has. As we said, VinĆcius Jr and Raphinha are great players, but Brazil donāt have the depth of quality like France or Spain. Plus, the Real Madrid star struggles to play to his standards for the national team. It also doesnāt help that in-form players like JoĆ£o Pedro didnāt make the squad. The decision to reintegrate Neymar into the team after a near 3-year absence was questionable before a hamstring injury that could limit his availability early in the tournament.
Why Argentina could win: As reigning champions, Argentina knows exactly what it takes to win. Nearly everyone who started the 2022 final is back for 2026, including Lionel Messi. The iconic forward is still capable of winning games by himself, and was the teamās top scorer in qualifying. In Lionel Scaloni, Argentina has one of the most proven national team managers, with two Copa AmĆ©rica titles won either side of the World Cup victory.
Why Argentina might not win: Repeat winners are rare. In fact, only two teams have defended their World Cup crown, and none have done so in the last 60 years. Argentinaās preparation for the World Cup has been scuppered by injuries, most notably to Messi. While his hamstring injury is minor, it serves as a reminder that heās nearly 39 years old. The South American side is far too dependent on older players, a weakness that could be magnified in the expanded World Cup format.
Top sportsbooks view France and Spain as a toss-up for the best team in the tournament, giving a slight edge to a Spanish side coming off a Euros victory. However, France is our pick among the favorites, as England is too reliant on Kane and Brazil lacks cohesion. France may have its own superstar in Mbappe, but they can win even when he isnāt dominating the game. The depth of world-class talent is so significant that a legitimate argument exists that Franceās second-string team could make a deep tournament run.
Les Bleus also play a disciplined style under Deschamps that is perfect for tournament football, as shown by back-to-back World Cup final appearances. France will be incredibly motivated to not only avenge the penalty shootout defeat to Argentina four years ago, but to win in Deschampsā final tournament in charge. While Franceās group is tough, with Norway and Senegal, it does ensure the team will be fully up to speed by the group stage.
Portugal arenāt really significantly off the favorites, so weāre cheating somewhat here. But they have moved from around +1200 in recent weeks. More importantly, this is about the line for a realistic winner. Italy won the World Cup in 2006 after entering the tournament at around +800 to +1000. Also, France were victorious in 2018 with around +700 pre-tournament odds. In short, the World Cup never produces Cinderella winners, and even teams like Portugal, just behind the top group, face an enormous challenge.
Still, if anyone can do it, itās Portugal, in large part thanks to its elite midfield talent. The trio of Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, and JoĆ£o Neves might be the best in the whole tournament. Portugal also has a very winnable group, with only Colombia a legitimate threat. Now, the elephant in the room: Cristiano Ronaldo. The superstar is 41 years old and a far more limited player. Still, heās Ronaldo, and heāll start up front. The need to play around Ronaldoās limitations is the biggest knock on Portugal. But they have the talent now to do so, as shown by their Nations League win.
As we just explained, the World Cup is almost always won by a team within the top four or five favorites. So a long-shot candidate for the World Cup isnāt the same as in other sports or events. If you want to bet on an outside contender for the World Cup, you still need to stick to the top 10 or 12 teams. Morocco (+6000) are a trendy pick after a historic semi-final appearance in 2022, and Colombia (+4500) are coming off a Copa America final run. But for us, Norway are the best balance of a semi-realistic chance and solid odds.
There is one big, blond reason why Norway might be many peopleās pick to turn the football world upside down in 2026: Erling Haaland. For an underdog to succeed at the World Cup, it needs a world-class player to produce an all-time performance. No other long-shot contenders have a player like Haaland, who showed how he can carry Norway by scoring 16 qualifying goals. But we like Norway because they arenāt a one-man team. Martin Ćdegaard, Alexander SĆørloth, and Nusa are also attacking forces. It will take a few favorites crashing out, but in our opinion, Norway are best placed to take advantage.
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