Leo Messi has scored in his last seven World Cup games
Cape Verde drew all three of their group games to get here
Goalkeeper Vozinha (40) kept out 27 shots from Spain in his side’s 0-0 draw
The potential for a major giant-killing will be a big motivation for anyone watching this encounter between Argentina and Cape Verde as the reigning champions face the rank outsiders in Miami. However this one goes, it will be absorbing.
South America vs Africa. World Cup royalty vs tournament first-timers. Leo Messi vs Pico Lopes. When people talk about the magic of tournament football, this is what they mean. On paper, there is no way Cape Verde should get through this round, and yet Argentina will need to succeed where Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia have so far failed.
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Argentina were always going to have something to say about the eventual destination of the World Cup trophy this time out, having won it impressively back in 2022. And they have barely paused in their procession to this point, picking up three wins from three group games. Algeria were dispatched 3-0. Austria on the wrong end of a 2-0 scoreline. And Jordan, almost as an afterthought, brushed off 3-1. It wasn’t the hardest group, but it wasn’t as easy as Argentina made it look.
And then there’s Leo Messi. Every World Cup scoring record – aside from the single-tournament one, which he could still yoink – now lies with him. He’s scored 19 times in these tournaments, and almost a third of those have come in the last couple of weeks. In getting in on the act against Jordan, he scored for a seventh World Cup game in a row. And nobody would back against him adding #20, netting in an eighth consecutive contest, this evening.
Of course, if Vozinha has anything to say about it, Messi’s run could end here. One of the few players at this tournament born before Messi, the Cape Verde stopper is currently without a club having announced his exit from second-tier Portuguese club Chaves before the finals. He however looked ageless against Spain as he kept out several hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of forwards at bay in a 0-0 draw. Midfielders Kevin Pina and Helio Varela took over for the next game, scoring one apiece as Uruguay were held 2-2.
One thing Cape Verde haven’t done yet is win a game. Their best chance came against Saudi Arabia in the final group game, but a draw was always likely to be enough to get them through, and holding the Saudis to a 0-0 secured them second spot in their group. Argentina are logically the favorites for this contest, but nobody should be under any illusions that the Blue Sharks have bumbled their way to this point.
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Everyone loves an upset victory, and few would be more shocking than a success for Cape Verde in this game. But whichever way you slice it, it just doesn’t feel like it’s going to happen here. Argentina are one of the least likely sides to naively underestimate an opponent at this level, and their ability to call on possibly the best player ever to play the game certainly helps. It’s not going to be a walkover – the Blue Sharks won their CAF qualifying group and were one of the first teams to confirm their place in these finals – but this one is going to be won by the team that is favorite at all World Cup betting sites.
Realistically, there is a possibility that Messi does this all by himself. Cape Verde are the furthest thing from defensively naive, but we have to be realistic and acknowledge that Argentina are among the best sides in world football. They’re in that position due in no small part to the quality in their attack, and they’re likely to find openings in this encounter. There is also every possibility that Cape Verde will get among the goals; they picked up two against Uruguay who are not a poor side, and they know there’s no point trying to smother Argentina. They’ll need to push out at some point.
Sure, there’s a more obvious contender. Go look at his odds to get among the goals on FanDuel if you want a laugh. Suffice it to say, there won’t be huge returns on a Leo Messi goal. Thiago Almada on the other hand is entirely capable of scoring against anyone and is much more reasonably priced, so if it’s value you’re after, the smart place to put your money is on the Atletico Madrid winger.
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