Brazil takes on Japan in one of the marquee Round of 32 matches.
Five-time champions topped Group C after finishing with 2 comfortable wins.
Japan went undefeated in Group F, finishing runners-up behind the Netherlands.
Brazil faces one of the toughest Round of 32 opponents as Japan stands in the way of a potential sixth World Cup title. After a disappointing draw against Morocco to start the tournament, Carlo Ancelotti helped Brazil find its groove and earned 3-0 wins over Haiti and Morocco.
Japan pushed the Netherlands all the way in a 2-2 draw in its first game. The Asian powerhouse made light work of Tunisia before a 1-1 draw with Sweden sealed its second-place spot.
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Brazil vs Japan in the Round of 32 feels too early; it’s that intriguing a game. Naturally, the South American giants are the clear favorites. They have an in-form Vinicius Junior, who has four goals in three games. They have one of the best managers of all time in Ancelotti. And they have a defense that’s only allowed a single goal. Even Neymar was healthy enough to return against Scotland as a substitute, though the rust is clearly there.
But Japan has proven itself as a genuine threat. Even without some injured key players like Watru Endo and Kaoru Mitoma, Japan has looked like one of the most well-rounded teams. They press aggressively, are devastating in transition, and are highly organized on defense. In fact, Japan beat Brazil 3-2 last October, though the latter wasn’t at full strength at the back. Still, Japan is an incredibly lively underdog.
Brazil can’t afford another slow start like against Morocco. They were run off the pitch in the early stages, with gaping holes in the defense. Japan might not have one outstanding game-changer to rely on like Vinicius Junior, but its rotation, cohesion, and selflessness when attacking could be a real problem for Brazil.
Japan (+360)
The Blue Samurai might be the worst possible tactical opponent Brazil could’ve drawn in the Round of 32. Japan’s speed on the transition and relentless mentality could expose some of the vulnerabilities of Brazil’s back line. Ancelotti’s team looked far more disciplined against Haiti and Scotland, but Japan is levels above those teams.
Japan will look to frustrate its opponents with a disciplined defensive approach that prioritizes maintaining its shape and being compact. Brazil just doesn’t have the individual brilliance anymore that’s needed to snap a well-set-up mid-block, with too much on Vinicius Junior’s shoulders. With solid odds of +360 at BetMGM, one of the leading World Cup betting sites, we can’t help being tempted by the underdog pick.
Over 2.5 (+100)
Knockout games are naturally more cagey and conservatively played than group games, with one mistake potentially ending your tournament. But Brazil and Japan have been among the most prolific and effective attacking teams so far. Both have scored seven goals, and the Asian outfit ranks second in converting its attempts into goals at 26%.
This will be mitigated by their superior defenses compared to most of the sides they’ve both faced so far. But both teams have been consistent scorers for a long time. Brazil has found the back of the net in 13 of 15 games under Ancelotti. Meanwhile, Japan has only failed to score in each of its previous 10 matches.
Matheus Cunha (+230)
Vinicius Junior has been the main man for Brazil, and is rightfully the anytime goalscorer favorite at +155 after scoring 4 times. But Cunha is right behind him with three goals, and is the only other player to score for Brazil so far.
After Igor Thiago started the opener against Brazil, Cunha has cemented himself as Brazil’s best option up front. There’s always a concern that Cunha could return to his previous struggles in a Brazil shirt. But this is the best value pick, and Cunha should be secure for a significant role against Japan.
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