5-time champions Brazil came back to beat Japan 2-1 in the Round of 32.
Erling Haaland's winner against Ivory Coast earned Norway its first knockout victory ever at the World Cup.
Brazil has never beaten Norway in 4 previous meetings, with 2 losses and 2 draws.
One of the standout matchups of the Round of 16 is Brazil vs Norway. Both teams needed late goals to secure their place in the next round of the knockout, and now a place in the quarter-finals and either Mexico or England awaits the winner. With the likes of Erling Haaland and Vinicius Junior, few other Round of 16 games have as much attacking star power.
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Brazil dramatically avoided extra time against Japan with a 96th-minute winner from substitute Gabriel Martinelli. While the Asian powerhouse was resilient, it was a deserved winner for the South Americans, who dominated possession and chances created. It arguably should’ve come earlier when Vinicius Junior came close to producing one of the World Cup’s best-ever goals.
But the concerns about Brazil remain. They are one of the older squads at the tournament, and it showed against a high-energy Japan side. While Casemiro scored the equalizer, the 34-year-old’s lack of legs is obvious. He also left the game late with an injury. Whether the veteran midfielder can hold up against Martin Odegaard and Patrick Berg, who was a standout against Ivory Coast, is a key question.
This game will come down to which superstar steps up. Both Haaland and Vinicius Junior have produced outstanding tournaments so far, scoring 5 and 4 goals, respectively. The Real Madrid winger hasn’t always performed for Brazil. But with Raphinha unlikely to play again, Vinicius Junior must continue his top form. Haaland, meanwhile, has no such inconsistencies on the international stage. The Man City striker has scored in 13 straight competitive games for Norway.
Draw (+260)
The Round of 32 produced a lot of close games that were either decided in the final moments or needed extra time or penalties. We’re tempted to go with Norway (+300), but backing another stalemate in regulation stands out. These are two closely matched teams who both needed late winners to advance from the Round of 32.
Brazil looked overwhelmed in the early stages against Morocco, so a fast start from Norway could force the South Americans to chase the game again. If Brazil are the ones to score first, we trust in Norway’s deadly counter-attacking abilities and Haaland’s effectiveness from set pieces to bring things back to a level playing field.
Over 2.5 Goals -110
A major concern for goals in this game could be the extreme heat expected, likely contributing to this being seen as a coin flip from BetMGM, one of the best World Cup betting sites. But we’re still confident in betting on these two high-scoring sides hitting at least 3 combined goals. Brazil games have hit over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 4 matchups, while Norway’s have cleared it every time.
Norway didn’t play 10 of its starting players against France, so just taking games with the team at full strength, they’re averaging 3 goals a game. While it’s a concern that Raphinha could again be sidelined and Lucas Paqueta might join him, Brazil still has Vinicius Junior and Matheus Cunha, while the injuries could open the door for a bigger role for 19-year-old Endrick, who looked dangerous against Japan.
Erling Haaland (+130)
Whenever we can get Haaland anytime goalscorer at plus money, we’re taking it. Norway might be the underdogs, but they’re a live one, and the European side doesn’t win without at least one goal from its talisman.
Haaland has scored in every World Cup game he’s appeared in so far, including 2 braces against Senegal and Iraq. Haaland is also experienced playing against Arsenal center-back Gabriel, and the duo has a feisty history.
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