Canada won its first-ever knockout game against South Africa to progress to the Round of 32.
Morocco stunned the Netherlands on penalties to book its spot in the next phase.
The African side is the heavy favorite over the tournament co-hosts in a match set to be played in Houston on July 4.
Canada needed a 92nd-minute winner from Stephen Eustaquio, but it was the first team to progress to the Round of 32 with a tense win over South Africa. The co-hosts will face a far stiffer challenge in the Round of 16 in Morocco, which went blow-for-blow with the Netherlands before earning the upset win in a dramatic penalty shootout.
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Morocco was the Cinderella story of the last World Cup, becoming the first African nation to make the semi-finals. The team looks capable of replicating that feat in the 2026 tournament. While Morocco needed a stoppage-time equalizer against the Netherlands to avoid elimination, it more than deserved its chance to continue. Morocco dominated possession against the Netherlands (70% to 30%) and had double the attempts on goal.
Canada created the most chances against South Africa but wasn’t able to control the ball without injured midfielder Ismael Kone. Morocco, therefore, should dictate the tempo of the game. Alphonso Davies is in line to make his first start, but the Bayern Munich star looked rusty in his first appearance as a substitute against South Africa. If Davies is deployed on the left side of the midfield, he’ll face the tough task of battling star full-back Achraf Hakimi.
Aside from a 6-0 destruction of Qatar, goals have been hard to come by for Canada. Jonathan David scored a hat-trick in that win, but has otherwise been worryingly quiet. He’ll need to sharpen his finishing if Canada is to cause an upset. Morocco isn’t a high-scoring team, either, but has Ismael Saibari in fine form, with the striker scoring in all three group games.
Morocco (-130)
Morocco has been battle-tested this tournament and has proven itself as a top team. Hakimi is a world-class talent who has been the team’s main creative force, producing the most chances of any player in the tournament at 14. While Richie Laryea has been solid defensively, he will likely be overwhelmed on Canada’s left side by the duo of Hakimi and Brahim Diaz.
Davies’ expected return for Canada is a major boost, but expecting him to be able to make a game-changing impact when he hasn’t played a full match since late May is optimistic. With the crowd on its side, Canada should put up a solid fight before Morocco’s overall superior talent wins out.
Under 2.5 Goals (-160)
This should be another classic defense-focused, tense knockout game. As we mentioned, Canada scoring 6 past a poor Qatar side was a bit of an anomaly. In six of their other 9 games in 2026, the North Americans have scored just one or fewer goals. Morocco held both the Netherlands and Brazil in check in this tournament, so it’s hard to see Canada getting more than one, even if center-back Chadi Riad is unable to play due to injury.
While Canada has yet to face a world-class attacking team at this tournament, its defense has also been impressive. It has an expected goals allowed (xGA) of just 0.62, behind only Spain (0.55). Morocco trails Canada in this metric (0.89), but that’s still a top-10 mark, and arguably more impressive considering the African team’s opponents. All in all, the under at -160 is decent value.
Ismael Saibari (+200)
In a closely fought, defensive game, going with one of the proven goalscorers at one of the top World Cup betting sites is the best option, even if the rewards aren’t as great. Saibari has 3 goals already at the World Cup and produced the winning penalty in the shootout against the Netherlands.
Saibari, who is moving to Bayern Munich this summer, boasts an impressive blend of physicality, aggressiveness, and movement skills that should be a struggle for Canada’s defenders.
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