Colombia only needs to avoid defeat to top Group K.
Portugal bounced back from a draw with DR Congo to beat Uzbekistan 5-0.
Cristiano Ronaldo quieted critics with a 2-goal performance.
Portugal was expected to be the team to beat in Group K, but it’s Colombia that enters this top matchup in first position. The South Americans, who have looked clinical so far, will clinch the group with a win or a draw.
Portugal’s win over Uzbekistan means its place in second should be safe thanks to its superior goal difference. Only a big loss to Colombia and DR Congo dominating Uzbekistan could relegate Portugal to third.
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Portugal’s tournament is back on track after trouncing Uzbekistan, but it’ll still need to prove its status as a genuine contender at the tournament. While Portugal looked much improved against Uzbekistan, the scoreline flattered the performance somewhat. The European side produced an expected goals (xG) mark of 2.41.
Still, getting the pressure off Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored twice in the win, should be a major boost. Too much of the conversation was about the legendary striker’s limitations. Now, Portugal should play with more freedom. At 41 years old, Ronaldo still forces Portugal to play with less flexibility, but his goal-scoring instincts are still vital.
Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes, and Joao Neves will dictate the game from midfield, so Colombia needs Richard Rios and Jefferson Lerma to battle hard. Roberto Martinez gave Portugal greater balance by bringing in Joao Felix, and he should feature again. Daniel Munoz continues to be key for Colombia, with the full-back scoring in both games so far. Luis Diaz is the linchpin up front and is unlucky to have just one goal in the tournament.
Draw (+260)
Colombia will be a far tougher test for Portugal, and the South Americans will want to fight for at least, particularly to secure the top spot in Group K. They should be at an advantage playing in the Miami heat compared to the Portuguese. Colombia also has the firepower to go blow-for-blow, with Diaz, James Rodriguez, and Luis Suarez.
Portugal should have the run of the midfield, with arguably the most talented trio in the tournament. Bruno Fernandes looked particularly sharp against Uzbekistan, playing a key role in one goal and creating several other chances. While Ronaldo put in a great performance against Uzbekistan, his limitations still show up against top opposition. A split of the spoils is in the cards here.
Under 2.5 Goals (-130)
Colombia has been rock solid at the back in its first two games, only allowing one goal, albeit against offensively limited opponents. Portugal has been similarly impressive on defense, also only allowing a single goal. They also both rank highly in xGA, with Colombia in 9th (0.77) and Portugal in 4th (0.31). In short, these teams aren’t likely to be in a shootout.
This should also be a tightly contested game because of the stakes, with both teams wanting to win but do so without exposing themselves too much. Portugal will play the possession game, slowly building up its attacks through its strong midfield. Colombia should sit back more and hope to counter. We like the under price of -130 at BetMGM, one of the best World Cup betting sites.
Luis Diaz (+310)
Portuguese players dominate the anytime goalscorer market, but we like Diaz at +310. The Bayern Munich star is far too talented to be priced that highly and should arguably be the biggest threat to Portugal, especially on the counterattack.
Diaz scored in the first game against Uzbekistan and had two goals against DR Congo ruled out for offside. The forward also had a team-high five shots, constantly harassing DR Congo’s back line. Coming off a 23-goal season for Bayern Munich, Diaz is a great bet at these odds.
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