Mexico has already secured top spot in Group A.
With only 1 point, Czechia needs a win to potentially advance.
Mexico is playing in front of a home crowd in Mexico City.
Mexico will be participating in the knockout stage after winning its opening two games and securing first place in Group A. With an eye on the Round of 32, the co-hosts might opt to give limited minutes to some of its key players. Czechia has no such luxury, as it needs to win to have a chance at qualification after a loss to South Korea and a draw with South Africa.
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Czechia should be in a far stronger position if it could’ve been more defensively resilient in its first two games. Miroslav Koubek’s side took the lead against South Korea before allowing two goals in 13 minutes, and were on to beat South Africa before conceding an 83rd-minute penalty. Even if Czechia can take down a superior Mexico team, South Korea can seal second place with just a draw against South Africa.
Czechia struggled to get enough of the ball against South Korea and South Africa, with around 38-39% possession in both games. This doesn’t bode well against a Mexico side that is comfortable retaining possession, as it did in its other two Group A games. Mexico’s defense has also been outstanding so far, not allowing a single goal. Czechia needs Patrik Schick, who hasn’t scored yet, to find his form.
But as we said, Czechia might get a break with Mexico not playing a completely full-strength lineup. Keep an eye out for the co-hosts making some changes ahead of the game. Key players such as 35-year-old Raul Jimenez might be rested for the knockout stage. Plus, legendary goalkeeper Memo Ochoa is expected to start for a swan song appearance in his sixth World Cup.
Draw (+280)
Mexico will want to end the group stage with a bang in front of its fans, but with nothing to play for other than entertainment, we see the co-hosts coasting through the final game against Czechia.
While Czechia should be desperate for a win, they haven’t looked convincing enough for us to pick the upset, even against a weakened Mexico side.
Under 2.5 Goals (-134)
Neither Czechia nor Mexico have been among the many high-flying attacking teams this tournament. The former has scored just one goal, while the latter has three. It’s also not like they’ve been creating a bunch of chances and just failing to convert. Czechia has had just 7 total shots on target, while Mexico has 9.
Czechia will, of course, play with more aggression, as a draw will almost certainly eliminate it from the tournament. But the team still isn’t built to score a huge amount of goals. Plus, Mexico will be dangerous on the counterattack, so we see the co-hosts scoring early, sitting back, and being comfortable with conceding only one consolation goal for Czechia.
Patrik Schick (+240)
With the uncertainty of how much Mexico will play its top attackers, we’ll go with Czechia’s talismanic striker. Czechia knows it must feed its best player more chances if it’s to score enough to beat Mexico.
While Schick has been kept mostly in check this tournament, he’s a proven goalscorer. Schick had 8 goals for Czechia during qualifiers and has produced 36 across his previous two domestic seasons with Bayer Leverkusen. He’s also Czechia’s penalty taker. At a solid price of +240 at FanDuel, one of our top World Cup betting sites, we’re rolling with Schick.
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