France was stunned by Spain in the semifinals to miss out on a third straight World Cup final.
England were the latest team to fall victim to an Argentina comeback victory.
The third-place playoff game between the European giants will take place on July 18.
The penultimate game of the 2026 World Cup is here, and it’s a match no team wants to be playing in. The two teams that lost the semifinals and missed out on a chance at winning the World Cup, France and England, will face off in Miami for the bronze position at the tournament.
While the third-place playoff is controversial, with some players and managers arguing that it serves no purpose, it gives the teams a chance to end the tournament with a win, and it will be fans’ last chance for a while to see the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane on the international stage.
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France’s attack dismantled every team set before it until it ran into the unbreakable defensive wall of Spain. We knew Spain had a great defense entering the game, allowing just one goal. But we assumed Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Michael Olise would be able to work their magic. In reality, Spain completely nullified France on offense. Les Bleus finished with an expected goals (xG) of 0.32 and an xG on target of just 0.07.
It all started in midfield, which was a known weakness for France, with Spain’s Rodri dominating the center of the pitch. But England won’t be able to replicate this on-ball strength. They’ve struggled to consistently be a threat when teams sit back, forcing them to break low blocks with incisive forward passes. For all the strengths of Elliott Anderson and Declan Rice, England’s midfield lacks creativity.
Much has been made of Thomas Tuchel’s decision against Argentina to essentially park the bus while 1-0 up against Argentina. It was a tactic that worked against Mexico and Norway, but because they lacked a playmaker like Lionel Messi. France weren’t able to break the incredible defensive structure of Spain, but England have been consistently vulnerable at the back. They’ve only kept two clean sheets all tournament, against Panama and Ghana. It should be a much more productive day for France, especially as Mbappe should still be motivated to win the Golden Boot.
England and France might make some changes to give players who’ve had limited roles more of a chance to play. Kobbie Mainoo might step in to give Rice some rest, while Jarell Quansah will return from suspension and could replace Reece James. For France, Warren Zaïre-Emery, N’Golo Kanté, and Rayan Cherki might be inserted into the starting lineup.
France (-115)
Losing in a semifinal is always devastating, and both teams have their own reasons for feeling disappointed. France looked like the best team in the tournament, while England was 10 minutes away from its first World Cup final in 60 years. Still, we see France as the more motivated and fresher side. This will be legendary coach Didier Deschamps’ last game in charge, and the team will want him to go out on a high. Plus, France had an extra day of rest after playing on Tuesday.
In terms of how the teams match up on the pitch, France’s speed from Mbappe and Dembele will be hard to contain for an England defense that’s been exposed out wide. Even if Olise is rested, France should be able to more easily keep possession against England. Tuchel’s men will need to press aggressively to disrupt France’s rhythm, but whether they can bring that intensity after the loss to Argentina is a big question.
Under 2.5 Goals (+175)
We see this as a comfortable low-scoring victory for France. England was able to limit Argentina when they focused on pushing forward and attacking themselves, and should be more aggressive against France. Still, England doesn’t have the same quality of defenders as Spain, especially a midfield general like Rodri. So France will get its chances and should be able to convert a few.
This is a wager more on England again disappointing in the final third. Kane hasn’t scored since the Round of 32, and there’s a good chance he and Bellingham are subbed off earlier than normal. So, an England attack that’s been inconsistent could be even less effective and will be facing a France defense that only allowed two goals before the loss to Spain. With plus money at top World Cup betting sites, we’re picking the value on the under.
Kylian Mbappe (-145)
Mbappe, of course, wanted to get revenge on Argentina for the 2022 World Cup final defeat. But he still has a chance at history in this game. The French star could become the first-ever player to win two Golden Boots after claiming the award in 2022. Mbappe sits on eight goals and three assists, just behind Messi, who also has eight goals but has the edge thanks to four assists.
France wants to win the game first and foremost because of the departing Deschamps, as we said. But the team will presumably also do all it can to help Mbappe win the Golden Boot, so expect him to be fed chances even more than usual.
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