France needed a Kylian Mbappe penalty to beat Paraguay 1-0 in a fiery matchup.
Morocco scored three second-half goals to earn a win against co-hosts Canada.
The first quarterfinal match of the World Cup will take place on July 9.
France, the bookmakers’ clear favorites to win the World Cup, were frustrated for the first time this tournament during their Round of 16 win against Paraguay. Les Bleus ultimately prevailed, but Morocco will be looking to replicate Paraguay’s dogged defensive approach as the heavy underdog. The African team sailed past Canada as it seeks a second straight semifinal berth.
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France had looked almost unstoppable through the group stage and the first knockout win over Sweden. The European giants scored 13 goals in those four games, with six coming from a red-hot Mbappe. Now, one frustrating game against Paraguay shouldn’t impact France’s status as the favorites, but it showed its world-class attack can be limited. Of course, Paraguay boasts one of the tournament’s best defenses, also neutralizing Germany in the Round of 32. Still, the game will likely bolster Morocco’s hopes of an upset.
To do so, Morocco, the last remaining African team, will also have to find a way through a French defense that’s allowed just two goals and kept three clean sheets. While Morocco scored three times against Canada, they only had five total shots and struggled to consistently create chances throughout the game. Morocco also might have to play without top scorer Ismael Saibari, who left the win over Canada in the first half due to a hamstring injury.
Michael Olise will again be key for France as it looks to break down another team that will likely sit back and defend in a low block. He leads all players with five assists, but was a non-factor for much of the Paraguay game. Olise and Dembele will need to bounce back and provide better support for Mbappe if France is to avoid another frustrating night. Morocco is definitely capable of forcing that, with only Spain, France, and Argentina boasting a better expected goals allowed (xGA).
France (-175)
Grinding out a win against Paraguay did prove that France can win ugly when necessary. That’s a key requirement for any potential World Cup-winning squad, and few teams know how to produce tournament soccer better than France under Didier Deschamps. While we still have concerns about an underwhelming midfield against teams like England and Spain, France still has too much offensive firepower for Morocco.
Like in the games against Senegal and Paraguay, it might take time for France to pierce a determined Moroccan defense. Meanwhile, few players know Mbappe better than Achraf Hakimi, so France might need others to step up. In the end, without Saibari, Morocco doesn’t have the attacking talent to stand with France.
Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
France, despite its weapons up front, likes to play a more disciplined and conservative approach at tournaments, especially the deeper it gets. So while Morocco might not be able to limit France as well as Paraguay and likely won’t resort to the same cheap tactics as the South Americans, France will likely push forward patiently and carefully. Another three- or four-goal performance feels unlikely.
Morocco might have scored three goals against Canada, but its attack didn’t look anywhere near as effective without Saibari. Morocco actually finished with a lower xG (0.82) than Canada (0.84). The African team has scored one goal in three of five games, which also included the win on penalties against the Netherlands. With Morocco facing an imposing French back line, we’re going with the under.
Ousmane Dembele (+200)
As we mentioned, Mbappe will have to face former teammate and one of the world’s best right backs in Hakimi. Of course, Mbappe has been in spectacular form and could easily win that battle. But with the Real Madrid standout priced as the favorite (-118) at BetMGM and other top World Cup betting sites, we’re looking at France’s other stars for better value.
Dembele has scored four goals at the World Cup, with three coming against Norway. He will face a significant challenge in Noussair Mazraoui, but the reigning Ballon d’Or winner’s elite dribbling skills and pace should mean he can win the battle consistently.
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