France comfortably beat Morocco 2-0 in the quarterfinals to advance.
Spain needed another Mikel Merino winner to get past Belgium.
France are the slight favorites after a dominant tournament so far.
The World Cup semifinals are here, and FIFA couldn’t have dreamed of a better set of matches. France and Spain, who entered the tournament as co-favourites, face off on Tuesday. France is looking to become only the third team to make three straight World Cup finals, while Spain is seeking a shot at its second straight major trophy.
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France and Spain know each other well. They played in the semifinals of Euro 2024 and last year’s Nations League, with Spain prevailing both times. It’s France who are seen as the slight favorite to advance from this game, but it’s still an even matchup of teams with significantly different approaches. Spain wants to dominate possession and the tempo of the game while also relying on a stellar defense. Meanwhile, France is happy to sit and wait for the openings to unleash its incredible array of forwards.
Those forwards have indeed been incredible, with France scoring the second-most goals with 16. Superstar Kylian Mbappe has eight of those goals and is, of course, the key to unlocking a Spain defense that conceded its first goal of the tournament in the quarterfinals. Mbappe picked up a knock on his ankle, but said he’s fully fit for the match. Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembele has also produced an exceptional tournament, scoring his fifth goal against Morocco.
Spain hasn’t been as prolific, scoring 11 goals. But they’ve just lacked some clinical finishing, equaling France with 110 shots and trailing in total expected goals (xG) at 13.31 to 12.75. Lamine Yamal’s lack of sharpness coming off a hamstring injury is a reason why, as is Spain’s propensity to want to almost pass it into the net. Mikel Merino has twice had to come on to score the winner in the previous two knockout games, giving Spain a more physical and direct approach.
This match might be decided in the midfield, where Spain boasts the star duo of Pedri and Rodri. The latter has been outstanding in the tournament, controlling the pace, starting attacks, and protecting the backline. Aurelien Tchouameni is the key to France not getting dominated in the center of the pitch, but he’s missed the entire knockout phase due to a thigh injury. While Manu Kone has filled in admirably, France’s best chance of preventing Spain from controlling the game is with Tchouameni back.
Draw (+210)
France and Spain always play each other incredibly closely, with Spain winning the last two games by a goal each time. France undoubtedly has the better firepower, with Mbappe in almost untouchable form. But their attack can be held in check for a time. Morocco kept France without a goal for 60 minutes, as did Senegal. France also needed a penalty to take down Paraguay 1-0 in the Round of 16. Spain will easily be the best defensive unit France has faced all tournament, allowing only one goal.
Spain does need more end product to keep pace with France, especially from Yamal. The teenager looks healthy, but against Belgium, he continued to struggle to make a major impact. But it’s just a matter of time before Yamal clicks, and he usually brings it on the biggest occasions. Meanwhile, Mikel Oyarzabal and Merino are red hot in front of goal. We foresee needing extra time to find a winner between arguably the two best teams at the World Cup.
Under 2.5 Goals (-110)
The over-under is understandably a coin flip at the top World Cup betting sites. When you have the best attack and defense of the tournament facing off, a stalemate is a strong possibility. France’s attack is incredible, but Spain will likely take the majority of possession, limiting the chance for Mbappe and Co. While Spain’s defense has gotten the plaudits, France’s has only allowed two goals.
With a World Cup final appearance on the line, a semifinal is usually a cagey affair. Didier Deschamps has unleashed France more than at previous tournaments, but we expect a more conservative approach, knowing just one Mbappe dribble or Michael Olise pass can win the game in the blink of an eye.
Kylian Mbappe (+110)
BetMGM is offering Mbappe at +110, a price that reflects the strength of Spain’s defense and the overall similarities in talent level between the two teams. But Mbappe is establishing himself as Mr. World Cup this tournament, taking his overall tally to 20 goals in 20 appearances. He has, of course, the shortest odds, but +110 still feels like value considering he’s scored in all but one game this tournament.
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