France topped Group I and was 1 of 3 teams to win all of its group games.
Sweden earned a third-place qualification spot with a draw vs Japan.
Ousmane Dembele became the 6th player to score a first-half hat-trick at the World Cup against Norway.
France remains the World Cup favorites after dominating its group, comfortably beating Norway, Senegal, and Iraq. Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele are both in red-hot form and in contention for the Golden Boot, helping make France the heavy favorites to advance against Sweden.
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France was a goal-scoring machine in the group stage, putting up 10 total and conceding just 2. A test against a full-strength Norway team might’ve served the French well, but they already look like a team that’s rounding into tournament-winning form. Mbappe has been at the heart of France’s success, scoring 4 goals. Dembele has also scored 4 times, including a historic first-half hat-trick against Norway. In short, the French attack has been as good as advertised.
Sweden came back down to earth after a 5-1 thrashing of Tunisia in the opening game got fans believing. A 5-1 loss to the Netherlands followed before a 1-1 draw with Japan was enough to squeeze into the Round of 32. Sweden’s talented attack, which includes Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, hasn’t been potent against higher-quality opponents. That doesn’t bode well for Sweden. While France’s defense isn’t as good as its attack, they rank 4th in expected goals allowed (xGA).
France will likely dominate the ball, with Sweden manager Graham Potter setting up deep and hoping to spring Isak and Co. on the counter. But center-back Isak Hien will miss the game due to injury, further weakening an already poor Sweden back line. Trying to limit Michael Olise, who has been pulling the strings for France, is a must if Sweden is going to stifle France’s chances.
France (-325)
It’s fair to say France has the best attack in the tournament, and that Sweden doesn’t have the defenders or the defensive structure to stop them. They might be able to limit Didier Deschamps’ side for a little while, as Senegal did in the opening half of their group game. But Mbappe, Olise, Dembele, Desir Doue, and Bradley Barcola can’t be contained forever.
A weakness of France lies in its unremarkable center of midfield, but Sweden doesn’t have the players there to take advantage. William Saliba’s back injury is a concern, especially against Isak and Gyokeres. But in the end, France will be able to pick Sweden apart in a similar way to the Netherlands and stroll into the Round of 32. If you’re looking for extra value, playing France -1 (-135) at BetMGM, one of the best World Cup betting sites, could be a smart play.
Over 3.5 Goals (+110)
With France such heavy favorites and with both teams involved in high-scoring group games, we’ve assessed the 3.5 total goals line. Despite the early Round of 32 games producing fewer goals, we’ll take the over. The French attack is one of the most reliable in the tournament. Mbappe and Dembele are finding the net with ease, and even if Sweden manages to limit the duo, France have so many other goal-scoring threats.
Neither team has kept a clean sheet this tournament, so with Sweden boasting its own top forward talent, we see them breaking France’s defense at least once, even as just a late consolation goal.
Michael Olise (+155)
As we’ve said, Mbappe and Dembele have dominated the scoring for France. Olise has operated in the playmaker role, drifting around and penetrating opposing defenses with crisp passes. But with Mbappe (-210) and Dembele (-110) priced accordingly, we like swinging for a longer shot with Olise.
Sweden’s defense has been porous. France has the quality up front to score a lot of goals, so trying to pick a secondary option is smart. Olise might not have found the net so far at the World Cup, but he scored 20 times for Bayern Munich this season. The forward also produced a hat-trick in the final warm-up game against Northern Ireland.
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