Germany has advanced from the group stage for the first time since 2014.
A loss to Ecuador in the final match didn’t stop Germany from topping Group E.
Paraguay qualified as a third-place team with 4 points in Group D.
Germany is finally back in the knockout phase after successive group stage embarrassments for the 4-time champions. But the team’s momentum was halted after two wins by a 2-1 loss to Ecuador in the final match. Meanwhile, Paraguay battled through Group E and rode its defense to earn one of the 8 third-place qualification spots.
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Germany is the clear favorite in this Round of 32 match, but the loss to Ecuador has dampened the excitement around the team. Julian Nagelsmann played a full-strength outfit against the South Americans, but they gave up a 1-0 lead in the defeat. They also needed a late comeback to beat the Ivory Coast, while a 7-1 win over Curacao showed off their attacking ceiling.
The European side is also dealing with injury issues. Nico Schlotterbeck will miss the rest of the tournament, so Antonio Rudiger will continue to cover at center back. Left-back Nathaniel Brown also missed the Ecuador game but should be able to play. Fortunately, Germany has no such concerns in attack, its main strength. Kai Havertz, Florian Wirtz, and Jamal Musiala are a formidable and creative forward three.
Paraguay will be a tough unit to crack still, though. They struggled early in a 4-1 defeat to the USA, but kept clean sheets against Turkiye and Australia. Paraguay also conceded just 10 goals in 18 qualification games. However, they could be without defender Omar Alderete. In positive lineup news for Paraguay, Miguel Almiron returns after serving a one-game suspension. But Diego Gomez will be missing after racking up too many yellow cards.
Germany -275
The Germans would’ve been prime candidates for an upset with a less favorable Round of 32. Paraguay was able to stifle Turkey and Australia, but the USA showed that a talented attacking team willing to be aggressive can expose its weaknesses. Wirtz and Musiala are great at unlocking defenses with key passes, and if things stagnate, Germany has Deniz Undav on the bench. Undav has scored three times this tournament without a start.
Paraguay simply doesn’t have the firepower to stand with Germany. Almiron’s return is a big boost, but the loss of Gomez offsets it. With Gomez absent, Paraguay will struggle even more to create chances. The South Americans haven’t actually scored in any of their previous 5 World Cup knockout games. Germany should comfortably earn the win in regulation time.
Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
Despite Paraguay’s issues in attack, we’re going with the over. We’re obviously relying mostly on Germany to break through early and open the floodgates. Nagelsmann’s side knows how to score. They scored 4 goals twice in warm-up games before the World Cup, and while Curacao isn’t a good team, putting up 7 goals is still impressive.
Paraguay’s lack of goal-scoring threat is a concern with this bet, but they have nothing to lose in this match. They can be more aggressive on the counter, and Germany is vulnerable. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet at the World Cup. With -135 odds at BetMGM, one of the top World Cup betting sites, we’re comfortable expecting a reasonably high-scoring knockout game.
Kai Havertz (+110)
Havertz trails only teammate Undav (+100) in anytime goalscorer odds, but the Arsenal man will continue to lead the Germany attack from the start. The 27-year-old has been a consistent scorer for his national side. He has found the net twice this tournament, pushing his total to 29 goals in 61 international matches.
With Wirtz and Musiala pulling the strings in attack, Havertz will be the man pushing Germany’s front line forward and getting on the end of their probing passes.
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