Japan beat Tunisia 4-0 in the World Cup’s 1000th match.
Sweden is looking to rebound after a 5-1 loss to the Netherlands.
Pivotal Group F clash to be played in Dallas on June 25.
It’s all to play for in Group F. Japan and Sweden face off with the top spot in the group still possible for both, though it would take the Netherlands failing to beat a Tunisia side that’s already conceded 8 goals. The winner will likely instead take the second guaranteed spot in the knockout round.
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Japan and Sweden enter the final match of the group stage coming off wildly different results. The Blue Samurai overwhelmed Tunisia 4-0, a dominant performance that solidified the fact this team still has a high ceiling despite its pre-tournament injuries. Meanwhile, Sweden went from one extreme to another. Off the back of its 5-1 opening win over Tunisia, the European side endured a 5-1 defeat at the hands of the Netherlands.
Sweden was a defensive mess against the Netherlands, lacking discipline and with many mental lapses. It has been an issue for a long time for Sweden, which hasn’t kept a clean sheet for 13 straight games. That shows the defensive issues won’t be fixed overnight, and Japan has the attacking talent to take advantage. The Asian outfit also employs a high-energy and relentless approach that’s perfect for forcing more mistakes from Sweden.
While the scoreline against the Netherlands was bad for Sweden, they were able to control a significant portion of the game and had more shots (21 vs 12) and shots on target (10 vs 7) than their opponents. With Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, Sweden has the forward talent to win this game. It’s just a matter of if they can score more than they’ll inevitably concede.
Japan (-110)
Japan can still win Group F, and with 4 points already, it’s all but assured of a place in the knockout stage regardless of the result. So with the final group games being played simultaneously, Japan will have the motivation to go for the win until it knows the Netherlands is likely headed for a win.
Japan is one of the most dependable and consistent teams, and Sweden is the complete opposite. As its two results so far show, you don’t know what version of Sweden you’re going to get. They’re rightfully the heavy underdogs, and we need better value than +330 to trust them to overcome a Japan side that can go goal-for-goal with them if needed.
Over 2.5 Goals (-140)
Maybe one of the easiest picks of the World Cup so far, which you can find at FanDuel, one of our favorite World Cup betting sites. As we mentioned, Sweden’s leaky defense isn’t capable of keeping a clean sheet. Far better teams than Japan have scored multiple goals against Graham Potter’s side.
All four games involving these two teams have smashed the over, with 20 total goals. The way this game is set up, the fireworks should continue. If Japan scores first, Sweden will have to throw everything forward because the big loss to the Netherlands has left it with a weak goal difference. If Sweden scores first, Japan will need to attack to not lose out on second place and the superior Round of 32 matchup.
Alexander Isak (+210)
Isak and Gyökeres were kept off the scoresheet by the Netherlands, but we think the Liverpool man will be key for Sweden in this game. His pace should be able to stretch Japan’s back line, and he looked dangerous – and finally fully healthy – against the Dutch. Isak created four chances and assisted Sweden’s lone goal.
Japan’s attack is more of a group effort, spreading the goals around, as shown by its six players priced at or below +340. So with Isak’s anytime goalscorer odds at +210 and Sweden needing to play aggressively, we’ll roll with the Liverpool striker.
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