Mexico beat Ecuador for its first World Cup knockout victory since 1986.
Harry Kane rescued England in the Round of 32, scoring 2 late goals to beat DR Congo.
Mexico’s long wait for a World Cup knockout win ended after a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ecuador, and now the co-hosts take on one of the pre-tournament favorites in England on home soil. England hasn’t lived up to its contender status so far and will need to do what few teams have been able to do to make the quarterfinals: beat Mexico at the legendary Estadio Azteca.
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The Round of 16 has been an unbreachable wall for Mexico for decades, but the co-hosts will feel this is their best chance of progressing. Mexico has been almost flawless throughout the tournament so far. They were 1 of only 3 teams to win all their group games, and they’ve yet to concede a single goal. Mexico also has the home crowd on its side and is far more used to the punishing altitude at which the match will be played.
England, meanwhile, has looked worryingly mortal. Kane, always the savior, rescued his team from a devastating exit against DR Congo. His second goal was one of the best of the tournament, and his red-hot form is a major concern for even a strong Mexico defense. England’s back line has been far from strong, with communication errors and wide open spaces between the lines giving opponents way too many chances. England has been lucky to play teams without the talent to take those opportunities, but Mexico definitely is capable.
17-year-old Gilberto Mora is playing with a confidence far beyond his years, excelling in a free-roaming role in which he can pull the strings of Mexico’s attack. Julian Quinones scored his third goal of the tournament against Ecuador and is the main danger to England’s back line that has struggled at right back.
Mexico (+210)
England looked great in an opening win against Croatia, but has been far from convincing for 3 straight games. Relying on Harry Kane’s magic isn’t the worst game plan, but its luck is bound to run out soon. Key players like Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka don’t look fully healthy after long seasons, and the defense can’t be trusted. These issues will only be worse at the altitude of Mexico City.
Estadio Azteca is a fortress, with Mexico winning 70 of 89 competitive games and losing just 2. The co-hosts are playing with supreme confidence, have a great blend of youth and experience, and their defense is exemplary. While we see another tense knockout game between Mexico and England, the home advantage should be too much to overcome.
Under 2.5 Goals (-188)
Mexico has been consistently solid going forward at the World Cup, scoring 8 goals in 4 matches, including 2 against Ecuador. But the co-hosts have been finishing with higher-than-expected efficiency. Mexico is seventh in expected goals (xG) vs actual goals per 90 at +0.94, as its xG stands at 1.26, which ranks just 27th in the tournament. Betting on regression, especially against its best opponent so far, is a smart play.
England are the opposite of Mexico, scoring fewer goals than expected with an xG vs actual goals of -0.13. But an overreliance on Kane, a disciplined Mexican back line, and the impact of the altitude could stifle an England attack that has been one of the best at creating chances.
Jude Bellingham (+450)
Kane has carried England’s scoring, but Bellingham has been the team’s other most consistent threat. The Real Madrid star has scored 2 goals in 4 games and was unlucky not to add to his tally in the Round of 32. Bellingham had a team-high XG of 0.54 and had 3 shots on target against DR Congo.
At FanDuel, one of the top World Cup betting sites, Bellingham is priced behind Marcus Rashford (+410), Anthony Gordon (+430), and Bukayo Saka (+440), despite outplaying all 3 teammates and being assured of a starting place. So we’ll roll with the value of Bellingham.
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