Sweden's 5-1 win over Tunisia was its biggest at the World Cup in 88 years.
Netherlands is looking to bounce back from a 2-2 draw with Japan.
Pivotal game in a highly competitive Group F on June 20.
Netherlands entered the tournament as the heavy favorite to win Group F, but a draw against Japan and Sweden’s 5-1 destruction of Tunisia means the Dutch have a real fight on their hands. In fact, Sweden can secure the top spot if it beats the Netherlands and Japan fails to win against Tunisia.
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The Netherlands’ 2-2 draw against Japan was incredibly entertaining for neutrals, but it was likely just as frustrating for Dutch fans. Ronald Koeman’s side was twice pegged back by Japan, including an 89th-minute equalizer. There will be questions about the Netherlands’ defensive capabilities, a unit led by Virgil van Dijk that was supposedly a strength.
Sweden has the attacking strength to expose that weakness again. Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak showcased their chemistry against Tunisia. They both scored and provided an assist, and their ability to connect on the counter could be deadly for Sweden. But it was Yasin Ayari who was the star of the first game. The 22-year-old midfielder scored two goals, including a stunning strike just outside of the box.
The pressure will all be on the Netherlands. They were considered outside contenders to finally win their first World Cup coming into the tournament. Meanwhile, Sweden had little hype after failing to win a qualifying game and getting a playoff lifeline through its Nations League ranking.
Draw (+270)
Koeman’s approach to the Japan game was concerning, and we aren’t banking on the manager learning his lesson. Up 2-1, Koeman made three negative substitutions that forced the Netherlands to defend its lead and invited pressure. Without Donyell Malen and Crysencio Summerville to break out and push Japan back, the Netherlands were asking for trouble. While a draw with Japan, seen as the other top team in the group, isn’t a disaster, the Netherlands’ tactical issues are a concern.
Still, the Netherlands should be able to dominate possession thanks to a strong midfield led by Frenkie de Jong. He will be key to breaking down Sweden’s low block. While the Dutch need a win to top the group, they can still progress with a draw and a win over Tunisia. With both sides eager not to lose, we’re going with a draw at a solid price of +270 at BetMGM, one of our favorite World Cup betting sites.
Over 2.5 (-120)
Sweden’s five goals against Tunisia flattered their offensive performance somewhat, with an expected goals (xG) of just 1.4. But Isak and Gyokeres are one of the most dynamic and cohesive striker pairings at the World Cup, with the former’s pace and movement skills and the latter’s physicality. The Netherlands’ defensive structure looked off against Japan, and we’re expecting similar struggles given the short turnaround.
The Netherlands were able to create some chances against Japan, and have firepower of their own with Malen, Summerville, Memphis Depay, and Cody Gakpo. They weren’t at their best in the first game, but they scored an impressive 27 goals in qualifying. While some more creativity for the Dutch is needed, we see this game being another high-scoring affair.
Viktor Gyokeres (+195)
While Gyokeres’ odds are longer thanks to Sweden’s status as the underdogs, he is the most likely man to exploit the Netherlands’ defensive issues. The Arsenal striker has already scored once at the World Cup and notched 14 goals in the Premier League this past season.
If Sweden can get out on the counter, Gyokeres should get his chances. He showed he can perform at the most high-pressure moments during the World Cup playoffs, scoring four goals in two games to help book Sweden’s place in North America. Gyokeres should be a handful for Micky van de Ven, in particular.
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