Norway upset Brazil to make the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time in its history.
England survived an all-time classic against Mexico at the Azteca, with two goals from Jude Bellingham in the 3-2 win.
Star strikers Erling Haaland and Harry Kane remain right in the Golden Boot race, with seven and six goals, respectively.
England and Norway face off in what will likely be the most competitive quarterfinal match in a bracket that has four lopsided games, in the opinion of the bookmakers. England is looking to continue its incredible form on the international stage by making its fourth semifinal in its last five major tournaments. Norway has already made history by making it to this stage of the tournament and will be hungry to pull off another upset of a giant.
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Erling Haaland carried Norway through the World Cup qualification stage with an incredible 16 goals, and the Manchester City striker hasn’t let up despite the jump in competition. Haaland has scored seven times in North America, with two late goals against Brazil – including a stunner from outside the box – to bring Norway to the quarterfinals. Don’t get us wrong, Norway has talent everywhere. But arguably only Argentina is more reliant on one player.
England isn’t far behind in that regard, though, with Harry Kane carrying on his dominant season at Bayern Munich into the World Cup. But Jude Bellingham was the star against Mexico, with two goals in a few minutes to help England win despite a red card for Jarell Quansah, the altitude in Mexico, and the crowd at the Azteca.
It’s fair to say the England team boasts more overall talent than Norway. In addition to Kane and Bellingham, Declan Rice and Elliott Anderson have been a formidable midfield duo. New Barcelona man Anthony Gordon has also stood out, assisting twice against DR Congo and winning a penalty against Mexico. England’s attack can also turn to the likes of Bukayo Saka, Marcus Rashford, and Morgan Rogers. Haaland is backed up by Martin Odegaard and Antonio Nusa, but Norway’s depth is lacking.
Neither team shines on defense. England has consistently looked vulnerable, especially at right back, though Reece James should be fit enough to return. Haaland will be a physical challenge unlike anything Marc Guehi and Ezri Konsa have dealt with this tournament. Meanwhile, Norway’s defense has averaged a poor 1.64 expected goals allowed (xG) per 90, though it is inflated somewhat by a 4-1 loss to France in which 10 starters were rested.
Draw (+270)
This is the toughest quarterfinal to pick, and we’ve opted to sit on the fence for the result in regulation. Both teams have already played close knockout games. Norway needed an 86th-minute winner from Haaland to beat Ivory Coast, and the Brazil game was 0-0 until Haaland scored twice in the final 11 minutes. Meanwhile, England were 1-0 down to DR Congo until Kane scored twice in the last 25 minutes, and was then forced to hold on to its 3-2 lead over Mexico for the last quarter of the match.
All that is to say, we expect another game in which both teams trade blows. With such clutch stars like Haaland, Kane, and Bellingham playing, it feels a late equalizer to take it to extra time is a strong possibility. England is the superior team, but it can play down to its opponents. Norway has nothing to lose, really, after already achieving a new level at the World Cup.
Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
All four knockout games for these two teams hit the over, though, as we said, it took some late-game heroics. We aren’t convinced by either defense, and they’ll be facing two of the best attacks remaining in the tournament. England leads all teams with 23 big chances created and has 11 goals, while Norway is fourth with 21 big chances and has 12 goals.
Both teams have gone through extended periods without scoring in games, but thanks to their world-class strikers, they only need to create a half chance to get rolling. There is some room for regression, especially for Norway, which has an xG vs actual goals of +1.04, meaning they’re finishing at a more efficient level than expected.
Erling Haaland (+120)
Any time top World Cup betting sites like BetMGM price Haaland at plus money, we’re taking it. Norway’s status as the underdog means Kane has the shortest odds at -115, but Haaland is a mismatch against an average England defense. Haaland will pounce on any miscommunication between England defenders, and we haven’t even really seen him use his speed much this tournament to get behind the back line.
The imposing striker has scored in every World Cup game he’s appeared in, and his run of scoring in competitive international games sits at 14, all the way back to October 2024. Haaland might be quiet for much of the contest as England focuses all of its attention on stopping him, but he inevitably will have at least a few big chances.
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