France won its 4th straight game at the tournament by beating Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32.
Paraguay pulled off one of the biggest upsets so far by taking down Germany on penalties.
France are overwhelming favorites for the Round of 16 match on July 4.
France continued to look like the class of the World Cup with a near-flawless performance against Sweden, comfortably booking its place in the Round of 32 thanks to another Kylian Mbappe brace. Instead of playing in a battle of the European giants against Germany, France will take on Paraguay following a shock win for the South Americans.
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We’re running out of superlatives for this France attack. Mbappe was his usual dynamic self against Sweden, scoring 2 goals for the third time in 4 matches. But Michael Olise was arguably the star of the show, setting up a goal for Mbappe and one for Bradley Barcola to take his tournament assist tally to 5. France seems to be finding a new level of offense, a scary prospect for Paraguay and the rest of the tournament.
Paraguay’s attack is one of the worst at the tournament. They’ve scored just 4 goals in 4 games, which included extra time against Germany. The team’s expected goals (xG) per 90 of 0.81 trail the likes of Curacao (0.97), Jordan (0.94), and Haiti (1.05), all of which didn’t get close to getting out of the groups. Julio Enciso is Paraguay’s best forward, but with little support, France’s solid defense can focus its attention on stopping him.
Paraguay produced a defensive masterclass to contain Germany, using a disciplined low block to frustrate and contain its opponents. Gustavo Alfaro’s bend-don’t-break approach worked as Germany failed to build up its attack quickly and wasn’t creative enough to disrupt Paraguay’s disciplined structure. After a 4-1 loss to the USA, Paraguay has only conceded 1 goal in 3 games. Unfortunately, France’s speed and ingenuity are its main strengths in attack, so they likely won’t fall into the same trap as Germany.
France (-600)
France has shown very few weaknesses so far this tournament, and rightfully is the overall favorite. Mbappe, Olise, and Ousmane Dembele are the best attacking trio in the World Cup and are in red-hot form. Mbappe’s speed and dribbling can unlock any block, and Olise will roam around, finding space between the lines and breaking Paraguay’s structure.
Picking France straight up obviously doesn’t bring much value, and we happily suggested taking the handicap against Sweden. That easily hit in the Round of 32 match, and while Paraguay has a more accomplished defense, France -1.5 (-172) at FanDuel, one of the top World Cup betting sites, is again a recommended wager.
Over 2.5 Goals (-170)
France has now scored 13 goals in 4 games at the World Cup, and arguably should’ve had more than 3 goals against Sweden after producing 25 shots with 13 on target. Mbappe is highly motivated to not only help France win but also to keep pace with Lionel Messi in the hunt for the Golden Boot. The star forward won’t take his foot off the gas, helping our confidence with the over.
We aren’t confident in Paraguay being able to break through a French defense that just contained far more talented strikers in Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak than Paraguay possesses. But France has proven itself more than capable of hitting 3 goals by itself.
Kylian Mbappe (-200)
It’s best not to overthink an anytime goalscorer bet for a France game. Mbappe is not only France’s best forward, but he’s its most consistent scorer. Dembele has 4 goals, but 3 came in one game. Mbappe has scored in 3 of 4 games so far, and he’s also at his best when the pressure is highest. The Real Madrid star’s 10 knockout-round goals at the World Cup are the most in history.
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