In Week 5 of the NFL season, we have just one game on Monday Night Football, and it’s gearing up to be a good one. The Kansas City Chiefs host the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are 2-2 this season and will attempt to deliver the 4-0 Chiefs their first loss.
Looking at the moneylines for this game, the Chiefs have an implied probability of 72.07% to win the game, while the Saints are at 32.26%.
As for touchdown scorers, Saints running back Alvin Kamara will likely score at -125 (55.56%).
Below, I’ll examine this game, including my best bet, predict the score, look at touchdown scorer props, and more.
Let’s check it out.
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The Chiefs enter this game with a 4-0 record, but it’s coming in a less-than-dominating fashion, and they’re without numerous key pieces on offenses.
The Chiefs will be without wide receiver Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco.
Yes, they’re 4-0, but let’s look at how they got here:
In Week 4, they beat the Chargers on the road 17-10. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is averaging 226 passing yards, 1.5 touchdown passes, and more than one interception per game. He simply hasn’t played that well.
Here, they’ll take on a Saints offense that’s taken a nosedive since the first two weeks. They scored 12 in Week 3 and lost on a walk-off field goal in Week 4 to the Falcons, 26-24.
The Chiefs allow 235 passing yards and more than one touchdown pass per game. They have been solid against the run, allowing just 57 rushing yards per game. They have allowed pass-catching running backs to catch three passes for 29 yards per game.
As for the Saints defense, they have trouble against the run, but have only allowed one passing touchdown this season.
I think, given the Chiefs injuries, this will be more of a ground game on both sides, leading to the Saints losing, but by five or less.
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I’m expecting a lower-scoring game here with the Chiefs turning to running back Kareem Hunt more than passing through the air with so many injuries.
The Chiefs win this game 21-17.
With player props, you can wager on markets that don’t necessarily correlate to the game’s final outcome. There are numerous touchdown-scoring props, and my favorite is Hunt, who scored +170. He’s behind Karam (-125), Travis Kelce (+123), and fellow running back Carson Steele (+160). Steele has had fumbling issues, and Hunt got most of the carries in Week 4. He’s gotten some reps under his belt, and I think he leads the way again in Week 5. The Saints allow 5.23 yards per carry and have allowed two rushing touchdowns this season.
Look for Hunt to get plenty of volume, leading to a potential score.
Below, see the top-five odds on favorites to score a touchdown at any time and who will score first.
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