Group A going down to the wire
South Korea big favorites for the win
South Africa +425 to pull off a big upset
A place in the last 32 of the World Cup is up for grabs at Monterrey Stadium on Wednesday evening, as South Africa and South Korea face off in a crunch Group A showdown. Leading oddsmakers FanDuel clearly think that South Korea are going to get the job done. They currently price Hong Myung-bo’s team at just -286 for the win, with the draw at +260 and Bafana Bafana as long as +425.
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Although World Cup betting sites have generally got it right throughout the tournament, we think there is value in going against the favorites in this one. South Korea are clearly a stronger outfit than South Africa, but, aside from a fantastic final 25 minutes against Czechia in their opening game, they have struggled to find a cutting edge so far in the tournament. Veteran striker Son Heung-min has been off the pace, whilst influential playmaker Lee Kang-in looked out of sorts in the 1-0 Matchday Two defeat to hosts Mexico.
South Africa have been extremely poor in their opening two games, but we do think they have a sniff of springing a surprise in Monterrey, especially as they will need to go for the win if they want to avoid an early exit from the tournament. Given the extremely short price on a Korean victory, we think the value lies in backing Bafana Bafana to get something from the contest.
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Anyone who watched South Africa’s defensive efforts in their opening game against Mexico will know that this is not an elite tier backline. Time and time again, the Mexicans created very presentable goalscoring opportunities and were it not for some wasteful finish they would have won by a lot more than the eventual two goal margin. The South African defence did play better in Matchday Two, but it is worth bearing in mind that the Czech attack was far from impressive and we expect Korea to provide a much sterner test.
At the other end of the pitch, South Africa will need to show a lot more attacking intent if they are to have any chance of progressing. A change to a more attacking style could see them create more goalscoring opportunities, but it could also lead to them being exposed defensively. In short, we think this will be an open game with plenty of goalmouth action.
After two impressive displays off the bench, including a fine winning goal in the 2-1 victory over Czechia, there is every chance that Oh Hyeon-gyu will force his way into Korea’s starting eleven for Wednesday’s big game. If that happens, expect the Besiktas forward to cause the South Africans a lot of defensive headaches with his pace and movement.
If you’re looking for a longer odds first goalscorer option, then it is worth taking into account Korea’s vulnerability from set pieces – an issue that was exposed by Czechia on Matchday One. Because of this potential defensive problem for Korea, there might be a bit of long odds value in taking one of the South African defenders to open the scoring, especially as their likely starting center backs (Mbekezeli Mbokazi and Ime Okon) are both priced at over +4,000 in the first goalscorer market.
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