Spain reached the World Cup final by shutting out France in a 2-0 semifinal win.
Argentina scored twice late against England to return to the final for a second straight tournament.
The July 19 match will be the first World Cup final between the two teams.
We’ve made it. After 103 games, 46 eliminated teams, and around 300 goals, the 2026 World Cup final is here. Argentina is back again, looking to defend its crown in its third World Cup final appearance in the last four tournaments. It will also almost certainly be Lionel Messi’s final World Cup appearance, with the superstar looking to end the chapter with a second World Cup win.
For Spain, the game presents the chance at winning a second straight major tournament after success at Euro 2024. It’s also only Spain’s second-ever World Cup final appearance following its win in 2010.
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Spain were the slight underdogs against France, but ended up completely outclassing what many thought was the clear best team at the tournament. It was a supremely efficient defensive performance, and one that should cause some fear for Argentina. The likes of Rodri and Pau Cubarsí give Spain a perfect blend of experience and youth when defending. The team looked seamlessly cohesive and organized against France, to the point that stars like Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise were almost nonfactors.
Argentina’s run to the final has been built on late magic. England arguably should’ve beaten the South Americans, only to shoot themselves in the foot with a disastrous tactical decision to go super-defensive. Credit where credit is due, Argentina seized that opening, with Messi making two assists to earn the comeback win. But Spain won’t be so conservative and can stifle Argentina by retaining possession far better than England.
In fairness, Spain has also needed some late-game heroics. Before dominating France, back-to-back Mikel Merino winners saw off Portugal and Belgium. Still, Argentina seems overly reliant on Messi and struggles to get into top gear. Eight of their 11 knockout goals have come after the 75th minute. It’s a resilience worth admiring, but Spain won’t shut off late like other teams. After going up 2-0 and with France going all-out, Spain only surrendered an expected goals (xG) of 0.27.
Spain will need more from Lamine Yamal, though. It was another game without a goal or an assist for the Barcelona star. Yamal also failed to register a shot, though he did win a penalty and had a goal disallowed. Spain has proven it doesn’t need Yamal to be on top form to win, but if Argentina scores first, the European side will need to open up and be more direct. And Yamal is the team’s best one-on-one threat. We know Messi will rise to the occasion, so Spain needs its main man, too.
Draw (+200)
Spain is the more complete and consistent team. Rodri is back to his best, Mikel Oyarzabal has finally given the team a reliable threat up front, and the defense is almost impenetrable. They are rightful favorites, but we think Spain will only prevail after extra time. So while we’d take Spain at -148 to win the World Cup, we’re relying on more Argentinian grit to help end the game in a tie after regulation.
Since beating Saudi Arabia 4-0, Spain has scored only one or two goals in four of its last five games. The quality in competition ramped up, but this isn’t a team that will put a game well out of reach. Messi will command most of Spain’s attention, and understandably so, considering he’s scored eight and assisted four of 18 goals. But the likes of Julian Alvarez and Enzo Fernandez have excelled in recent games, giving Spain more threats to worry about.
Under 2.5 Goals (-158)
We’ve lauded Spain’s defensive abilities throughout this article, and they are the major reason why we’re leaning toward the under here. Argentina’s attack shouldn’t be dismissed, as they rank third in goals per game at 2.7. But again, as we’ve highlighted, they struggle to consistently score before the final quarter of the game. If we’re backing who will win out in a battle of strengths, it’s Spain.
The last two World Cup finals have been high scoring, with Argentina-France ending 2-2 after regulation in 2022 and France beating Croatia 4-2 in 2018. But they are usually extremely cagey affairs. In the seven tournaments from 1990 to 2014, three finals ended regulation time at 0-0. Meanwhile, three others finished 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0. So history points to another low-scoring battle.
Mikel Oyarzabal (+165)
Messi is the favorite anytime goalscorer (+150), but he hasn’t scored in the last two games, instead operating more as a facilitator than a finisher as teams looked to halt his goalscoring after a red-hot start to the tournament. We see this trend continuing as Argentina will need Messi’s incredible passing range and dribbling to unlock a strong Spain defense.
So that’s a long-winded way of saying we’re going to the next shortest odds at FanDuel, one of the top World Cup betting sites, which is Oyarzabal. The Real Sociedad star scored his fifth goal of the tournament against France. He’s also Spain’s penalty taker, which is important against a team that has committed more fouls than any other this tournament.
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