Spain are yet to concede in 270 minutes of play so far
Austria secured last-32 qualification with a stoppage-time goal against Algeria
Spain has slipped from tournament favorite to third favorite with many sportsbooks
An all-European tie is in prospect this evening in Los Angeles as pre-tournament favorites and reigning European Champions take on Austria, who themselves are fresh from a thrilling 3-3 draw with Algeria in their last game.
The winners here will find themselves facing Portugal or Croatia in the last 16, but winning will be all that occupies the minds of the players taking to the field. For Austria, the question of how they breach a very solid Spanish defense will be foremost as they look to win a knockout game for the first time since 1954.
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An opening draw with Cabo Verde has acted as an anchor on the hype that surrounded Luis de la Fuente’s side coming into the competition, although the African side’s second-place finish in Group H may have reframed the 0-0 result in a more positive light. Adding to that sense of momentum is the fact that Spain have not conceded yet at the finals, improving to deliver a comfortable 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia and then beating Uruguay 1-0, a result which eliminated the outside fancy from South America at the group stage.
In any case, the knockouts are where Spain has tended to come alive in previous editions of the tournament, and given that obdurate defense allied to the strong individual attacking profile of la Rioja, they are evident favorites for this contest. Lamine Yamal, who notched twice against Saudi, is going to be a thorn in Austria’s side from the first whistle.
Austria, for their part, are not a bad side by any stretch of the imagination: players from Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich are counted among their stars here, and they’ve scored six goals already so they certainly have the capacity to create. It’s just that “not bad” is unlikely to be enough to beat their opposition in LA. Their group stage performance is enlightening in this respect. They opened up with a 3-1 win over Jordan (a decent result), then lost 0-2 against Argentina (not horrific) before securing a 3-3 draw with Algeria with a goal in the sixth minute of added time.
Six goals scored, six conceded, not absolutely hammered by a Messi-powered Argentina; that’s an OK showing. But drawing in a punch-drunk slugfest with Algeria underlines a key problem: they’re prone to mistakes and are playing an opponent that is both not prone to mistakes and also very good at punishing others’ errors. And that’s hard to ignore.
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This is probably one of the easiest calls of the Round of 32 at World Cup betting sites. Austria have enough about them to unsettle a bigger side, but that side would usually need to be lacking confidence and have a demonstrable weakness, and neither of those points really describes Spain, who are the ultimate example of a cohesive, competent if occasionally unspectacular front-runner. Austria would have a puncher’s chance against England, for example, but it’s hard to imagine circumstances in which they come away from this game still in the World Cup, and odds of -340 at FanDuel for Spain to win in 90 minutes probably flatter Austria.
If there is a science to predicting an outcome in a sports contest, it is in analysing what the teams have done before and what they are likely to do based on that. So in this instance, we have Spain, who are hard to break down and possess skilful attacking players, and Austria, who are not hard to break down, for whom attack may be the best form of defense. Add to this that we would expect Austria to fall behind and need to chase the game at some stage, and the most likely eventuality here is that there will be openings for Yamal, Oyarzabal, Olmo and co. as well as the chance that Austria’s up-and-at-’em style will get them on the scoreboard.
There are plenty of potential goalscorers in this game. What there isn’t a lot of is value. Spain have the firepower to score plenty here, but most of their likely scorers are +250 or shorter. That feels a little stingy. On the Austrian side of things, Arnautovic may be 37, but has never relied on dynamite pace to get into scoring positions. He also takes penalties, so if Austria can break through the Spanish defense here, Arnautovic may be the best-priced runner in this market.
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