Spain needed a late goal from Mikel Merino to get past rivals Portugal in a lackluster affair.
Belgium stunned the USA with its best performance of the tournament in a 4-1 win.
Lamine Yamal is looking for his breakout game of the tournament with other stars performing.
Spain continues its pursuit of a second World Cup title and second major tournament win in a row, with Belgium standing in its way in a quarterfinal clash in Los Angeles. The winner will face France, who beat Morocco on Thursday, in the semifinal.
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Spain is coming off a disappointing performance in a win over Portugal. The game between the longtime rivals was always going to be closely contested, and Spain did produce more expected goals (1.69 to 0.63) and shots on goal (six to two) and was a deserving winner. Still, it was a step down from the form of its previous three games.
On the bright side, Spain has still not conceded a single goal in five matches at the World Cup as the team relies on its defense more than ever. Rodri, the former Ballon d’Or winner, has been at the heart of it, defending the front four and breaking up attacks before they can get started. Elsewhere, 19-year-old center back Pau Cubarsi has also been outstanding. Spain’s starting XI should be fairly set, but Belgium has some major decisions to make.
Rudi Garcia boldly sat Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku vs USA after his team came back to win against Senegal, when both were subbed off. The gamble paid off big time, and now the question is, will the two stars remain on the bench? Complicating matters further is the loss of midfielder Amadou Onana to a torn ACL. Hans Vanaken stepped in against the USA and scored, so he’ll likely have the first shot. Garcia also must again balance Charles De Ketelaere and Romelu Lukaku, who scored twice and once, respectively, against the USA.
We’ve gotten quite far into this preview without mentioning Lamine Yamal. With Harry Kane, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, and Erling Haaland lighting the World Cup on fire, Yamal has been the forgotten superstar. Yamal came into the tournament working back from a hamstring injury and hasn’t been as effective, with one goal and no assists. He’s had six shots on target over the last two games, but the sharpness doesn’t seem totally back. With the final stages of the tournament about to start, Spain needs Yamal to find his form.
Spain (-160)
While they weren’t convincing against Portugal, Spain is by far the more talented side in this matchup. Belgium looked lost against Senegal for much of the game, and while the win over the USA was impressive, perhaps the co-hosts had been overrated due to a lack of competition in their previous games.
With an expected goal difference (xGD) of +1.55, Spain easily leads all teams. De Bruyne has looked over the hill this tournament, and while Pedri hasn’t starred either, he and Rodri should rule the midfield. While Spain’s attack hasn’t always looked deadly, it still ranks fourth in expected goals (xG). If Yamal steps up, Spain should be too much for Belgium to handle.
Under 2.5 Goals (+106)
This pick is all about Spain. As we mentioned, it has yet to allow a single goal this tournament. But when you dive deeper, it’s even more impressive. Spain has only allowed five shots on target in five games, with 29 total shots, giving the team an unbelievable shots-on-target percentage allowed of just 17.2%.
Spain is not only not conceding, but it’s also barely giving teams chances to score. With De Bruyne, the usual creative force, playing poorly, it’s hard to see Belgium producing many quality chances. They like to break on the counter, which works well against a Spanish side that wants to dominate possession. But that seems to be the only likely route to scoring.
We also can’t see Spain racking up the goals, either. They have eight total so far this tournament, and three times have either scored once or not at all. Maybe Yamal explodes back into his usual self. But with Spain’s best forward struggling, and top World Cup betting sites like FanDuel giving the under at plus money, we’ll take it.
Mikel Oyarzabal (+125)
We’re expecting a low-scoring game, and it’s hard to back any Belgian player considering Spain’s defensive prowess, so we’ll go with the most in-form scorer in Oyarzabal. The Real Sociedad star is in the midst of a standout tournament, with four goals already. He was held without a goal against Portugal, but he still led the team with 0.65 xG.
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