Spain cruised into the Round of 16, dominating Austria 3-0.
Portugal snuck past Croatia after a 94th-minute goal and amid VAR controversy.
The European rivals will play each other for the 3rd time in the last 5 World Cups.
Another chapter is set to be written in one of international soccer’s biggest rivalries. Spain and Portugal reached the Round of 16 in drastically different ways, with the former easily dispatching Austria and the latter just surviving a spectacular battle against Croatia.
Spain is heavily favored to come out on top of a game that will see the winner face either Belgium or the USA in the quarterfinals.
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Spain made a statement against Austria after an unremarkable group-stage performance that saw them drop behind France and Argentina as most bookmakers’ favorites to win it all. Mikel Oyarzabal was the star of the show, scoring his third and fourth goals of the tournament. Lamine Yamal appeared fully healthy, causing havoc against Austria. All in all, Spain is finally looking like the deep, complete team we expected pre-tournament.
Portugal has been far less convincing. Ronaldo might have scored his first World Cup knockout goal with a penalty against Croatia, but he was ineffective for most of the game. He was subbed for the first time this World Cup, and his replacement, Goncalo Ramos, scored the winner. Just as concerning was the lack of cohesion between Portugal’s lauded midfield trio. Bruno Fernandes was unable to spark the attack as normal.
That doesn’t bode well for a Portugal side facing maybe the tournament’s best defense. Spain has yet to concede a single goal this tournament. It isn’t a mirage, either. Spain’s expected goals against (xGA) of 0.54 rank first, though it’s yet to face a top attack. It’s hard to classify Portugal as that, with the side producing 1.49 xG per 90. Portugal triumphed in the Nations League final on penalties against Spain, but faces an uphill battle to repeat the feat.
Spain (-115)
Portugal is lucky to be in the Round of 16, with Croatia creating more chances and also having its late equalizer disallowed by VAR due to the smallest of flick-ons. With Croatia able to get 7 shots on target, it’s scary to think what Spain’s attack can produce, especially with Yamal looking back to his usual self.
Portugal’s main strength, its star-studded midfield, hasn’t lived up to expectations this tournament. It is now facing a side that also boasts 2 world-class midfielders in Pedri and Rodri, and we see Spain’s talented duo winning the battle in the center of the pitch. Plus, with a much more clinical striker, Oyarzabal, leading its attack, Spain won’t need to create as many chances as it previously had been forced to produce.
Over 2.5 Goals (-105)
FanDuel and other top World Cup betting sites see the over/under as essentially a coin flip, but we’re confidently taking the over. Spain’s attack is rounding into form based on the Austria performance. Across the tournament, Spain’s actual scoring lags behind expectations. It’s 2.30 expected (xG) trails only Belgium among remaining teams, but Spain is scoring 2 goals per 90. More clinical finishing could continue Spain’s uptick in scoring.
Portugal has been far more inconsistent going forward, with a 5-goal performance against Uzbekistan making its overall stats look more impressive than the reality. Against Croatia, a lack of aggressive passes forward into the final third from the midfield held them back. Still, we expect an improved Portugal against Spain. Plus, the willingness to take Ronaldo off the pitch at the right time gives us confidence Roberto Martinez will mix things up if his offense isn’t working against Spain.
Lamine Yamal (+185)
Yamal has only scored once at the World Cup so far, but he came extremely close against Austria with a late chance and finished behind only Oyarzabal with a 0.72 XG. His 6 shots and 4 shots on target were both tournament-high, showing the Barcelona star just needs some more luck to find the back of the net.
The teenager has declared himself fully healthy, and we trust he’ll be able to utilize his dynamic skills across the entire game now. Yamal should also excel in 1-on-1 situations against a Portugal back line that struggled to defend Croatia’s wide attackers.
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