Spain reeling after being held to a 0-0 draw by Cape Verde.
Star Lamine Yamal expected to return to the starting lineup.
All tied up in Group H after Saudi Arabia also drew with Uruguay.
Spain’s 1-1 draw with Cape Verde was the shock result of the World Cup so far. The favorites entering the tournament couldn’t find a way to get past the determined debutant, and now need to kickstart their campaign against Saudi Arabia. An early goal for Saudi Arabia almost earned them a surprise result against Uruguay before a late equalizer left things wide open in Group H.
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With a huge game against Uruguay to end the group stage, Spain can’t afford to be complacent again in another match seen as a relatively easy win. The reigning European champions were humbled by Cape Verde, but they did dominate the game. They ended up with 27 shots, 74% possession, and an expected goals (xG) of 2.1. A lack of finishing hurt Spain, and even Lamine Yamal’s introduction as a sub couldn’t change things.
Yamal should be back in the starting lineup against Saudi Arabia. If it wasn’t obvious before how important the Barcelona man is to Spain, it should be now. Without Yamal’s one-on-one ability and directness, Spain regressed back into its overly possession-heavy style. It didn’t help that Nico Williams also couldn’t start, and he isn’t sure be able to in this game.
Saudi Arabia will try to follow Cape Verde’s blueprint, though expecting another heroic goalkeeping performance like Vozinha is optimistic. But Saudi Arabia showed it can withstand pressure against Uruguay, and it knows that a draw would set them up well heading into a final game against Cape Verde.
Spain (-1000)
Luis de la Fuente’s side can’t afford to drop more points, and while the pressure is high, they just have too much quality for Saudi Arabia. Yamal should spark the attack, and the likes of Pedri and Mikel Oyarzabal should step up their games to their usual level.
Obviously, despite the draw with Cape Verde, there isn’t a lot of value in betting on Spain straight up at -1000. FanDuel, one of the top World Cup betting sites, has Spain -2.5 at -116 and Saudi Arabia +2.5 at -122. Spain has struggled for goals before the Cape Verde match, drawing 1-1 with Iraq and 0-0 with Egypt in warm-up games. We lean toward Saudi Arabia +2.5 as Spain work back into form slowly.
Under 2.5 Goals (+180)
Continuing with that prediction of a solid but unspectacular Spain win, we are going with the under at a decent line of +180. As we said, Spain have been struggling to score consistently for some time, and even with Yamal back, we aren’t expecting fireworks from its attack.
On the other side, Saudi Arabia didn’t create a lot of chances against Uruguay outside of its lone goal. Spain’s defense is still extremely talented, and it will take some luck for Saudi Arabia’s attack to find real goalscoring opportunities.
Lamine Yamal (-125)
Yamal watched on as the other superstars in this tournament – Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, and Harry Kane – all started off their campaign with multi-goal performances. In fairness, Yamal started from the bench due to a hamstring injury that prematurely ended his club campaign. Spain should’ve been able to rest its key player for the whole game, but needed to push the emergency button.
Yamal looked his dynamic self against Cape Verde, freely running at defenders and recording two shots in just under 20 minutes. His performance gives us confidence that he’s ready to shoulder a much bigger burden against Saudi Arabia.
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