Switzerland beat Algeria for its first knockout-round win since 1938.
Colombia saw off Ghana while keeping its third straight clean sheet.
The winner will face either Argentina or Egypt in the quarterfinals.
Switzerland and Colombia are set to clash in the final Round of 16 matchup after both advanced to this stage of the tournament with close but confident wins. The Swiss started the World Cup slowly but have discovered a new level in attack, leading to 4 straight victories. Meanwhile, Colombia has ridden a stifling defense to the precipice of another quarterfinal appearance.
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Colombia has reached this stage of the World Cup without truly clicking on offense, and now will play without striker Jhon Cordoba for the rest of the tournament due to injury. Luis Suarez should step into the starting lineup, and Colombia still has Bayern Munich star Luis Diaz. Still, they’ve only scored 2 goals in 3 games since a 3-1 opening win over Uzbekistan. Creating chances hasn’t been a problem, with the fourth-highest expected goals (2.03) among remaining teams. Finishing them, though, is another story.
On the flip side, Switzerland has found its groove attacking after a 1-1 draw with Qatar to start the group stage. The European side scored 4 against Bosnia & Herzegovina and 2 against both Canada and Algeria. Granit Xhaka has been the team’s rock, pulling the strings from midfield. Meanwhile, bigger roles for Johan Manzambi and Ruben Vargas have been key to Switzerland’s improved performances, with the duo combining for 5 goals and 3 assists.
Still, a defensive battle is likely. Colombia ranks behind only Spain and France in expected goals allowed (xGA) per 90 at 0.87 among teams still standing, while Switzerland isn’t far behind (1.01). Whichever team sets up better in the transition and counterattacks effectively might come out on top, with big chances likely to be hard to come by.
Switzerland (+225)
Switzerland just seems to be getting better as the tournament goes on. They have one of the breakout players of the tournament in 20-year-old Manzambi, and Xhaka seems to be rolling back the years. Switzerland also had an extra day of rest and won’t need to travel after also playing Algeria in Vancouver. In such a grueling tournament, it could make the difference.
Colombia’s multiple narrow wins are a result of failing to turn chances into goals. It’s hard to see the team being more effective without Cordoba. Diaz is a game-breaking talent, and Ghana struggled to contain him. But the winger can be inconsistent and will now need to take on an even bigger workload. In a tight game, we see Switzerland moving on within regulation time.
Under 2.5 Goals (-175)
Colombia has been nearly impenetrable this tournament, only allowing 1 goal in 4 games, including holding Portugal to a goalless draw. Switzerland has discovered a great lineup that balances attacking and defending, but they still aren’t a top goalscoring threat. As we’ve highlighted, neither is Colombia, especially without Cordoba.
The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Switzerland games, and it hasn’t been covered in Colombia’s last 3 games. With a quarterfinal berth that would be an incredible achievement for either team on the line, a low-scoring game is our prediction, taking odds of -175 from BetMGM, one of our favorite World Cup betting sites.
Breel Embolo (+230)
Going with a low-scoring Switzerland win means Embolo is a natural choice for our anytime goalscorer pick. He’s been an integral part of Switzerland’s attack so far, scoring 2 goals and producing 2 assists. Embolo has also registered 9 shots across 4 appearances, and his xG per 90 of 0.77 easily leads his team.
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